In the middle of the mandate, the fragile center-left coalition of Olaf Scholz risks being sanctioned on Sunday during elections in the country’s two big conservative states, where the far-right also hopes to confirm the comforting results of the polls, comments AFP.

Bavaria (south), Germany’s largest state by area, and Hesse (west), home to Frankfurt, headquarters of the European Central Bank, renew their parliaments as they do every five years.

Some 9.4 million voters are called to vote in Bavaria, nearly 4.3 million in Hesse. The first estimates are expected around 18:00 (16:00 GMT).

In this election, which was a test for Olaf Scholz’s government, the main role was played by the public’s concern about the industrial crisis experienced by Europe’s first economy and the revival of the migration problem.

Also, the campaign was largely focused on criticizing the coalition in power from December 2021.

Undermined by ongoing disputes between the Social Democrats, the Greens and the liberals from the VDP, it gives the impression that it “cannot act” in a crisis, said Ursula Münch, director of the Academy for Political Education in Tutzing, Bavaria.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 fostered a period of unity in this unprecedented government team.

But then friction intensified on everything from budget cuts to measures to combat global warming.

Another campaign stake: fears of a new migration crisis like the one in 2015 due to increased arrivals of asylum seekers, especially from Syria and Afghanistan, through neighboring Poland, Austria and the Czech Republic.

The government has abandoned German border communes overwhelmed by the influx of refugees, preferring to “ignore the problem”, Bavaria’s populist leader Markus Söder again charged on Friday.

In this context, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) hopes to make progress in both regions.

Nationally, this anti-immigration party, which also criticizes climate protection measures linked to high prices and restrictions, has the highest level of voting intentions (between 20% and 22%) after the right (26%-28%).

According to polls, the three ruling parties have lower results than in the last elections five years ago.

Their task is complicated by the fact that the two states are bastions of law.

In Hesse, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has been in power for 24 years. Since 1957, Bavaria has been governed by its more conservative avatar, the Christian Social Union (CSU).

There is no doubt that Markus Söder’s CSU will win the election, but much will depend on its superiority over other parties.

A poll on Friday gave the party 37% of voters, its worst showing in nearly 70 years and down slightly from 2018 (37.2%). According to observers, such an assessment risks burying the alleged desire of the Bavarian leader to become chancellor.

In Hesse, the CDU is nominating nationally unknown Boris Rain, who will lead the country from 2022 and become the poll leader with just over 30% of the vote.

In that country, the AfD is second only to the Greens and the Social Democrats, led by Federal Interior Minister Nancy Feser, a figure in Scholz’s cabinet, but who is paying the price of the government’s unpopularity.

In Bavaria, where the SPD is traditionally weak, the AfD hopes to gain a foothold behind the CSU and its ally in the state parliament, the small Freie Wähler (“Free Voters”) party.

The popularity of this very conservative formation, implanted in the countryside, has not suffered, on the contrary, because of the controversy this summer over an anti-Semitic leaflet attributed to their leader, Hubert Ivanger, 52, and dating from his teenage years. .

In the end, his brother claimed authorship of the manifesto, also reminds AFP, reports Agerpres.