If North Korea supplies Russia with shells and other weapons for its war in Ukraine, it may help the Kremlin preserve its dwindling stockpile of ammunition, but it is unlikely to change the course of the conflict, military analysts cited by Reuters said.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un arrived in Russia on Tuesday for a meeting with President Vladimir Putin, where US officials say the two sides are expected to pursue an arms deal.

North Korea is believed to have a large stockpile of artillery shells and missiles that would be compatible with Soviet-era weapons, and a history of producing such munitions.

The size of these stockpiles and their degradation are unknown, as is the scale of current production, but they could help Russia replenish its stockpiles, said Joseph Dempsey, a defense researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

“While access to such stocks may prolong the conflict, it is unlikely to change the outcome,” he added.

Both Ukraine and Russia have consumed massive amounts of shells and turned to allies and partners around the world to replenish their ammunition stocks.

Russia fired 10-11 million projectiles at Ukraine last year, a Western official estimated on Friday.

North Korean ammunition, less advanced

Among the munitions the US has supplied to Ukraine are advanced projectiles such as the Excalibur, which use GPS guidance to engage targets up to 3 meters from a distance of up to 40 km.

North Korea’s offer is likely to be less advanced, but the stockpiles are likely to significantly boost Russia’s capabilities in the short term, while North Korea’s production lines will help in the long term, said Simon Wezeman of the International Peace Research Institute in Stockholm.

“Almost none of these munitions are in any way ‘advanced’ — they would support the use of conventional barrage artillery, but would not provide Russia with precision munitions,” he said.

Having a minimum stockpile of all 100-152 mm artillery would mean North Korea would have to have at least several million rounds in stock, Wezemann said, and would need serious production capabilities just to replenish the stockpile.

The White House has said that Russia wants to buy “literally millions” of artillery shells and missiles from North Korea.

North Korean projectile misses

Massive artillery fire has played a key role since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which it calls a “special military operation.” Some analysts call artillery the “king of the battle,” despite the emphasis on high-tech weapons.

“When used correctly, artillery can destroy the enemy’s will and cohesion, providing a significant opportunity to seize both terrain and the initiative,” said analyst Patrick Hinton of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).

However, according to Hinton, it is more difficult than simply throwing shells at the enemy, and Russian artillery has repeatedly failed to knock out the Ukrainians.

Hinton told Reuters that the problem of the quality of North Korean projectiles could be affected if defects fall outside acceptable tolerances.

“Poorly manufactured munitions will perform erratically — this can affect flight behavior, which will reduce accuracy; poor-quality fuses can lead to premature tripping; The shelf life can be shortened if the content is done poorly,” he said.

“All of this has to be manufactured to a high standard, otherwise it could land in the wrong place it’s expected to, which could have catastrophic consequences.”

Artillery can be dangerous for Russian soldiers

The effectiveness of North Korean artillery has been questioned since Kom Jong-un’s army fired about 170 shells at the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong in 2010, killing four people.

According to a report by the Washington-based project 38 North, more than half of those shells landed in the waters around the island, and about 20 percent of those that hit the island did not explode.

Such a high rejection rate suggests that some North Korean-made artillery munitions suffered from either poor quality control during production or poor storage conditions and standards, the report said.

With so much ammunition, the inaccuracy and occasional failure of shells or rockets wouldn’t matter much to the Russians, Wesemann said.

“However, it will matter if the North Korean ammunition is of such poor quality that it is simply unsafe for Russian soldiers to use – there are indications that such quality problems exist,” he added.

Kim Jong Un ordered to increase the production of missiles

In August, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un called for increased missile production to help ensure “overwhelming military power” and be ready for war, state media KCNA reported on Monday, as South Korea and the United States prepare for annual military exercises. , reports Reuters.

Kim Jong Un mentioned the “important goal of dramatically increasing” missile production capacity to meet the needs of advanced military units, which have been expanded and strengthened, the regime’s KCNA news agency reported.

“The level of quality of war preparation depends on the development of the munitions industry, and the factory bears a huge responsibility to speed up the war preparation of our military,” KNCA quoted Kim as saying.

There is a “very urgent need” to “exponentially increase” the production of such missiles to strengthen advanced artillery units, Pyongyang’s leader said.