Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin and one of his closest associates, Dmytro Utkin, another key Wagner figure, died on Wednesday after the plane they were on crashed. Will Wagner’s group survive without its founder, asks the Guardian.

Not only Prigozhin died in the incident. With him on the flight was Dmytro Utkin, one of his closest associates, another key figure of “Wagner”. A former GRU officer and mercenary who operated in Syria, he was involved in the organization of Wagner’s convoy that went to Moscow in June.

The only thing that is clear is that Wagner, as Prigozhin created him, no longer exists.

Prigozhin tried to regain influence, but many mercenaries were already dissatisfied

Given that Wagner’s prominent role in Russia’s military operations in Ukraine had already been severely curtailed by an attempted armed uprising against Moscow, but which dealt at least a short-term blow to Putin’s power, Prigozhin sought to regain some influence through his operation in Africa.

This week, he posted a video from somewhere in Africa, hinting that he may have found a new role and that his actions have been forgiven.

In the video, Prigozhin insisted that he was recruiting for work in Africa and also inviting investors from Russia to invest in the Central African Republic through the Russian House, a cultural center in the African country’s capital.

By the way, it is reported that Prigozhin, along with other high-ranking Wagner executives, was flying back from Africa on Wednesday when the plane crashed.

Despite his efforts to attract mercenaries, according to recent reports, hundreds of Wagner fighters who had been exiled in Belarus have begun to leave that country, some unhappy with lower wages here, others moving to work in Africa from the West. Wagner’s force there was reduced by about a quarter from more than 5,000 mercenaries.

Although several names have been speculated as possible replacements for Prigozhin, with the Kremlin’s approval, it is far from certain that any of them will be able to replace him.

Much of Wagner’s African empire, which combined disinformation operations, shadowy commercial interests and mercenaries, was based on the unscrupulous connections that Prigozhin and his friends had made over the years.

As British military analyst Sean Bell presciently told Sky News in June after Wagner’s trip to Moscow, without Prigogine, Wagner is nothing.

“If Wagner’s group is Yevgeny Prigozhin, it is difficult to understand how it will survive. This is the end as we know it.”