The Black Sea raid by the Russian fleet on the cargo ship Sukru Okan off the Turkish coast is testing the patience of President Recep Erdogan, who is trying to maintain good relations with Moscow and persuade Vladimir Putin to renew the agreement on the export of Ukrainian grain, writes Reuters.

Armed Russian marines boarded the Palau-flagged ship after it was opened fire on Sunday about 60 kilometers off Turkey’s northwest coast in international waters but near the Turkish city of Istanbul.

Russia said that after what it called an “inspection” was completed, the ship was allowed to continue on its way to Ukraine.

Turkey, which has NATO’s second-largest military, has made no public comment on the incident, which has taken the fallout from the war in Ukraine much further south than Ankara probably expected.

Analysts say the latest move by Russian military forces is testing Erdogan’s patience and determination to maintain good relations with his Russian counterpart, whom he invited to Turkey this month to discuss restoring a UN-brokered deal that allowed Ukraine to resume grain exports via the Black Sea. ports

“Strange silence” of Recep Erdogan

“Such aggression so close to Istanbul has gone unchecked and does not respect Turkey’s universal rights,” said Yoruk Isik, a geopolitical analyst at Bosphorus Observatory, a consultancy in Istanbul.

“Ankara’s silence is strange, but it shows that it still expects Putin to come to visit and get back to implementing the grain deal,” he says.

After Russia refused to extend the deal last month, it launched repeated strikes on Ukrainian port facilities on the Black Sea and Danube, warning that there were “risks” in trying to ship grain from Ukrainian ports without security guarantees from Moscow.

While Ukraine and some of its Western partners have tried to find alternative routes for these exports, Erdogan’s government, which also maintains good relations with Kyiv, has quietly opposed them on security grounds.

The Turkish president wants the West to accept some of Russia’s demands, but also for Moscow to drop some of its claims in order to resume Ukrainian grain exports under UN and Ankara supervision.

Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian ports complicate negotiations

On Wednesday, Russia launched new attacks on Ukrainian ports on the Danube, and Ukraine responded by announcing that a container ship had managed to leave Odesa as part of a “humanitarian corridor,” one of the proposed alternatives. Moscow has not said whether it will respect the shipping corridor, and shipping and insurance sources have expressed concern about their safety.

Rebecca Greenspan, the UN secretary-general for trade and development, said earlier in the day that she had been in contact with all parties involved to persuade them to return to the negotiating table, but talks were “difficult” in the context of the recent Russian war. bombing of the port infrastructure of Ukraine.

Aydin Sezer, a former Turkish diplomat and foreign policy analyst in Ankara, says Russia’s inspection of the Shukra Okan technically took place in a war zone, given the warnings both Moscow and Kyiv have issued to enemy ships in the Black Sea.

According to him, given the fact that Ankara sold drones and other military equipment to Ukraine while claiming neutrality in the conflict, “it is a very big challenge for Turkey to find its voice on this issue.”

What Vladimir Putin would like to return to the grain export agreement

Turkey tried to position itself in a zone that would allow it to be a mediator in any peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. She expressed her position against the invasion launched by Vladimir Putin and even demanded that Russia return Crimea to Ukraine, but at the same time condemned the Western sanctions imposed on Moscow and intensified economic cooperation with it during the war.

A Turkish defense ministry official told Reuters on condition of anonymity that Ankara was looking into the incident involving the Sukru Okan, but declined to provide further details.

Several high-ranking Russian officials, including Putin, have previously said that Russia is ready to restore a deal on Ukrainian grain exports if the West provides guarantees on Moscow’s demands. Russia has repeatedly charged that the part of the agreement that provided for guarantees on its grain and fertilizer exports was not respected.

Aydin Sezer says that two of Moscow’s key demands are the inclusion of a Russian bank in the SWIFT international payments system to ensure seamless payments and the lifting of sanctions on agricultural exports to Russia.

A former Turkish diplomat says that under these conditions, Erdogan should negotiate with Western countries, not Russia.