The arrest of a former Russian officer and ultranationalist who criticized Vladimir Putin is evidence of a shift in the balance of power behind the scenes, the Institute for the Study of War says.

Former FSB officer Igor Girkin was arrested in Moscow on charges of inciting extremist activity, Russian news agencies report.

Earlier, he accused the Russian president of weakness and indecision during his invasion of Ukraine.

Girkin commanded Moscow-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine in 2014 and was convicted in the same year by a Dutch court of involvement in the downing of flight MH17.

The Institute for the Study of War says that Girkin’s arrest could be a public manifestation of a shift in the balance of power in the Kremlin, possibly to the detriment of Russia’s Federal Security Service.

According to ISW, internal Russian sources said Girkin’s arrest was part of an effort by the Russian president’s administration to crack down on prominent Russian ultranationalists following the armed uprising of Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Girkin’s detention is not typical, criminal cases were previously brought against other ultranationalists who had connections with Russian special services in the past.

On the other hand, Britain’s Ministry of Defense said in an assessment on Saturday morning that Girkin’s arrest “is likely to anger colleagues in the mil-blogging community and elements in the Russian military who largely regard Girkin as an experienced military analyst and patriot.”

The British military secret service believes that “although Girkin is not an ally of the Wagner Group, he was probably willing to push the limits of public criticism only in the context of the aborted rebellion of Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin in June 2023.”

Girkin remains in custody until September

Prominent Russian nationalist Igor Girkin, who was detained by the Russians on charges of inciting extremism after criticizing President Vladimir Putin and the leaders of the Russian regular army, appeared before Moscow’s Meshchansky District Court on Friday.

The court ruled that Ihor Girkin will remain in custody during the investigation until September 18, reports the RBC news site.

The Prosecutor’s Office of the Federal Security Service (FSB) asked the Meshchan District Court of Moscow to keep Girkin in custody on charges of incitement to extremism and asked for the maximum penalty of five years in prison, news agencies report, TASS and RIA Novosti note.

Ghirkin’s arrest on Friday appears to have taken place during a purge ordered by Putin following a military uprising that was quashed at the last minute by Prigozhin.

Girkin was not close to the head of “Wagner”, there was an open conflict between them, but his arrest could be a new measure by the Kremlin to control the Russian information space.

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