According to the estimates of the French Institute of International Relations, more than a million Russians have left the country since the beginning of the war. The information technology sector has been particularly affected by this mass exodus, reports Les Echos, as cited by Rador.

Russia has not known such a wave of emigration since the Bolshevik revolution of 1917. A recent note by the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI), written by Russian researcher Vladyslav Inozemtsev, calls this massive population displacement caused by the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine “the turn of the century.

Part of the educated middle class, opposed to the regime of Vladimir Putin, fled Russia in two periods: from the first weeks after the aggression in Ukraine, and then, in September 2022, after the Kremlin’s call for “partial mobilization”.

Young, wealthy and educated

It is not easy to measure this phenomenon, so rare and partial are official data. The latest official statistics indicate that hundreds of thousands of people have left since the beginning of the war. According to Vladyslav Inozemtev, in reality it would be a million. The profile of these emigrants is being formed.

The IFRI note shows that this wartime emigration mainly concerns people who did not cause problems before leaving Russia.” These men (the vast majority), young, wealthy and highly educated, are part of the globalized upper middle class. “?They have some experience of travel abroad, to speak foreign languages ​​and to be well-versed in modern global digital culture,” the memo reads.

Brain drain

This population movement is not without consequences for the Russian economy. In 2022, more than one percent of the Russian labor force emigrated, causing many difficulties in the labor market. If a number of sectors were caught by this outflow, then the information technology sector was the most affected by the brain drain. “By the end of 2022, one computer technician out of six employees of Russian companies worked from abroad,” the report says.

The beginning of the century was also accompanied by a massive flight of capital, estimated at almost 4,000 billion rubles (40 billion euros). In recent years, the Russian upper middle class – today amputated by post-war emigration – has supported demand for housing, luxury products, as well as restaurant and hotel services,” the note noted. Today, these sectors are struggling to adapt after the departure of their customers.

Birth rate, at the lowest level

At the same time, the Russian economy is under pressure from another threat: demographic decline. The war, the uncertainty it creates and emigration have had a particular impact on the birth rate, which has fallen to its lowest level since 1993.

However, the IFRI memo relativizes the impact of emigration on the Russian economy. “The current outflow creates only structural and not systemic risks for the Russian economy,” the note says. “The Russian economy is likely to withstand the effects of recent emigration, primarily because the government has deliberately chosen a path of demodernization, and most of those who have left abroad are not necessary for the autarkic and statist economy that President Putin intends to establish. “.

Le Echos (The Rapture of Rador)