The fate of the Wagner group, which was founded by Yevgeny Prigozhin in 2014, remains unknown after the expulsion of its leader, but most analysts and veterans believe that it will continue its activities, only to split into two parts, reports Meduza.

In fact, it was even suggested by Russian President Vladimir Putin in a speech on Monday night, two days after a military uprising that some analysts called the biggest challenge to his power in the more than 20 years since he has ruled Russia.

Thanking the mercenaries of the “Wagner” PMC, who “made the only correct decision – did not take the path of fratricidal bloodshed,” Putin said that they would have “the opportunity to continue their service in Russia by concluding a contract with the Ministry of Defense or with other power structures.” agencies, or return to their relatives and friends”

“Whoever wants to can go to Belarus,” he added in his speech, in which he did not mention his former associate Prigozhin.

Moreover, the split in Wagner’s group seems to have already begun.

Of the 8,000 mercenaries who were considered ready to go to Moscow during the uprising, “only a thousand” decided to follow Prigozhin to Belarus, Meduza’s source in the Moscow Defense Ministry said.

Moscow invited Wagner’s mercenaries into the army

If they want to continue fighting in Ukraine, the remaining Wagnerites will have to sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense, according to a decree signed earlier in June by Sergei Shoigu and which Prigozhin cited as one of the reasons he decided to launch. rebellion.

“Not all [mercenarii] went with Prigozhin: part of the units remained here, on the territory of the special operation. Some stay at home [autoproclamatele] Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, the others are still in the territory of the Krasnodar Territory,” Wagner’s frontline veteran told “Meduza” after signing a contract with the army before the beginning of the uprising.

In his first intervention since announcing the “exile” to Belarus, Prigozhin said late Monday that a “minimum number” of mercenaries, “one or two percent,” had signed contracts to become professional soldiers.

“They are now being asked en masse to sign [un contract]. But of those I know, it was done by a few, those who are behind,” a former security officer close to the paramilitary group told Meduza.

“Those who are ahead [pe front], they don’t have time. They go to work in the morning and return in the evening. So far, nothing has changed for them: they are working as usual, strengthening the flanks,” he added.

Wagner’s group will disappear from the accounts of the war in Ukraine

iStories journalist Denys Korotkov, who has been writing about the mercenaries of the “Wagner” PMC for years, says that the “Wagner” group is unlikely to maintain its cohesion and effectiveness.

“It will no longer be a structure, but a certain number of people who will fill various formations,” he comments, adding that by scattering the “Wagnerians” in different parts of the Russian army, they will be considered practically as conscripts, mobilized and trained for two years. months before being sent to the front.

Marat Gabidullin, a former commander of a private military company who emigrated from Russia, says that the changes adopted by the Russian Ministry of Defense have already led to the “tearing of the Wagner group in half.”

“The front will remain practically without mercenaries, and part of Wagner will move to Belarus,” he says.

It is currently unknown whether full-time mercenaries who followed Prigozhin to Moscow arrived in Belarus together with Prigozhin. In fact, President Oleksandr Lukashenko only confirmed Prigozhin’s arrival on the territory of his country on Tuesday, suggesting that he arrived in Minsk by plane the same day.

What can happen to Yevgeny Prigozhin and his accompanying mercenaries in Belarus

After the column returned from Moscow, the Wagnerites went to the Luhansk region, and currently there is no information about the appearance of ordinary fighters in Belarus, despite Lukashenka’s statements that he can prepare a decommissioned military base for them.

“I briefly contacted the participants of the uprising, they say that they turned it back [la baze]: wash, clean, rest,” says Korotkov.

Several sources told Meduza that Prigozhin and the mercenaries who will join him in Belarus can continue their activities in Africa with the blessing of Lukashenka and increased control from Moscow.

“It is clear that Moscow will then have some control, because all air routes from Belarus to Africa pass through Russian airspace,” says Korotkov.

The Washington Post reported that the Wagnerites, who are currently in Africa, have not left their post, continuing their usual missions.

And the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia, Sergey Lavrov, has already announced that the governments of Mali and the Central African Republic will maintain ties with the Wagner Group.

But whether Prigozhin will remain at the head of the group remains to be seen, given the surprise that Vladimir Putin gave him on Tuesday night.

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