Prigozhin’s rebellion is Russia’s “most important challenge” in recent memory and the loyalty of security forces, particularly the Russian National Guard, will be “key” to how the crisis unfolds, Britain’s defense secretary said in an analysis on Saturday morning. .

Wagner’s soldiers in BakhmutPhoto: Yevhen Biyatov / Sputnik / Profimedia

This is how the British evaluate this moment:

  • On the morning of June 24, 2023, the dispute between Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group and the Russian Ministry turned into a military confrontation.
  • During the operation, which Prigozhin described as a “march for freedom,” the forces of the Wagner Group crossed from occupied Ukraine into Russia in at least two places.
  • In Rostov-on-Don, Wagner almost certainly held key security positions, including the headquarters that directs Russia’s military operations in Ukraine. Other Wagner units are moving north through the Voronezh region, almost certainly with the goal of reaching Moscow. With very limited evidence of fighting between Wagner and Russian security forces, some likely remained passive in accepting Wagner
  • In the coming hours, the loyalty of Russian security forces, particularly the Russian National Guard, will be key to how the crisis unfolds. This is the most important challenge for the Russian state in recent times.”

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the “Wagner” PMC, declares that his forces have taken control of military facilities in Rostov-on-Don and the airfield there. Vladimir Putin called Prigozhin’s operation “treason” and promised radical measures. “I appeal to the participants not to engage in armed conflict,” he said in a televised speech.

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