The overall slower-than-expected pace of Ukrainian counteroffensive operations is not representative of Ukraine’s broader offensive capabilities, and Ukrainian forces will likely succeed in setting the stage for future major efforts despite initial setbacks, experts at the Institute for the Study of War say.

Ukrainian officials have long signaled that the Ukrainian counteroffensive will actually be a series of gradual and sequential offensives, and have recently said that the operations currently underway are not the main Ukrainian counteroffensive planning effort.

The Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Hanna Malyar, emphasized that it is not worth evaluating the success of military operations, taking into account “only the number of kilometers or liberated settlements.”

Malyar’s statement echoes the observation of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi, who said that war is not a “Hollywood movie” that will produce immediate and tangible results.

“Important observation”

The observation that current Ukrainian operations may have more than just territorial goals is important. Ukrainian forces are likely to conduct several offensive operations across the entire theater of operations to gradually weaken Russian forces and create the conditions for a future main strike.

Casualties are inevitable on both sides, but careful operational planning on the part of Ukraine is likely intended to mitigate and balance this reality with the equally important reminder that reducing Russian combat power is a worthy goal.

In this context, let us recall that Yevgeny Prigozhin expressed his concern that the Russian forces are suffering significant losses of personnel and equipment as a result of the ongoing Ukrainian attacks, especially in the south of Ukraine.

The success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive should not be judged solely on the basis of daily changes in terrain control, as the broader operational intent of Ukrainian attacks along the entire front line may be based on reducing, exhausting, and gradually curtailing Russian capabilities to prepare additional offensive impulses.