Experts can list several stakes that are or will be put on the negotiating table at the NATO summit in Vilnius, but in my opinion there is only one big, extremely important stake: the unity of the members of the Western defense alliance in the face of the aggression of the autocratic Russia-China duopoly.

Cohesion is expressed in concrete facts and attitudes regarding many challenges that the summit agenda should take into account: (i) the war that Russia is waging against Ukraine may be extended for another three to four years – will the West stay with Ukraine, with or without by act, with financial assistance?; (ii) how will the West go about guaranteeing the sovereignty and independence of Ukraine, which will adopt the Western democratic model, will it include it in NATO, or will it find some other alternative format for accepting these obligations? (iii) how NATO will guarantee peace in the Balkans against the backdrop of incitement in Kosovo fueled by heightened national rivalries and interference from Russia, China and Turkey[2] in the region? (iv) what solutions will be found regarding the “independence” of Turkey (quite different from the Gaullist entity of France) and the “infidelity” of Hungary?.

UKRAINE, THE MAIN TOPIC OF THE SUMMIT

Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed the expectations of observers and was present on Wednesday, June 1 this year, in the Republic of Moldova, in the Constantin Mimi castle in Bulboac, to participate in a meeting of the European Political Community. Since the beginning of the year, Volodymyr Zelenskyi has been on a major diplomatic tour, seeking strong support for Ukraine’s cause: the restoration of sovereignty within the borders recognized by the UN by 2014.

His tour included the United States, Great Britain, Italy, France, Germany, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, the Arab League summit, Hiroshima, Japan, the G7 meeting, and here the Republic of Moldova. And at Bulboac, Volodymyr Zelenskyi reiterated the expectations that his country has from the NATO summit in Vilnius: (i) a specific invitation to join the Alliance and (ii) a system of security guarantees for his country from the Alliance on the way to joining NATO.

Organized by the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security – Atlantic Council, the meeting “Ideas for Implementation: Priorities for the NATO Summit in Vilnius” was held at the beginning of May.[3] where, in particular, the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Oleksiy Reznikov, was invited.

The Ukrainian minister detailed the goals that his country has after the July summit: (i) an official invitation of Ukraine to NATO; (ii) member states of the alliance to provide security guarantees to Ukraine during its accession; (iii) member states to support the peace plan proposed by President Volodymyr Zelenskyi; (iv) Allies to strengthen support for Ukraine in the conflict with Russia, in particular by providing long-range artillery, related munitions and assets, including aviation, to strengthen air defense capabilities; (v) cooperation to strengthen Ukraine’s defense capabilities on land, water and air; (vi) introduction of a consultation mechanism between NATO and Ukraine based on Article 4[4] from the NATO Charter; (vii) transformation of the Ukraine-NATO Commission[5] in the NATO Council – Ukraine; (viii) Alliance assistance to ensure that the Ukrainian military becomes fully compatible with NATO standards.

Ukraine’s list of demands may seem long, but the only goal that matters is inviting Ukraine to join the Alliance, after which everything else becomes self-evident as necessary or reasonable. And there is currently no unanimous answer to this question from the member states, on the contrary.

In the Konstantin Mimi castle, for example, Klaus Iohannis and Volodymyr Zelenskyi signed a joint statement in which our country supports Ukraine’s integration into NATO.[6]: (i) [Cei doi președinți] Expresses readiness to conduct bilateral consultations on international security guarantees of Ukraine before the acquisition of NATO membership on the basis of the Kyiv Security Pact of September 13, 2022; (ii) Romania will continue to promote the Alliance’s political and practical support to Ukraine in order to ensure Ukraine’s ability to effectively defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity; (iii) Romania will support Ukraine as long as it is needed. He will continue to provide multi-dimensional support to Ukraine and will call for increased international support and assistance to Ukraine. Romania will support Ukraine in post-conflict reconstruction and recovery in order to ensure a stable, safe and sustainable state.

“The main aspiration is for Ukraine to become the winner of this meeting,” Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrid Šimonite said in January of this year, speaking before the parliament in Vilnius.[7]

In February of this year, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak asked NATO member states to be ready to provide Ukraine with long-term security guarantees, which, in his opinion, are necessary both to protect it from future aggression by Russia and to protect the rules of international the order that kept the peace after the end of the Second World War.[8]

In Bulboac, French President Emmanuel Macron called on the member states of the Alliance to take into account “collective discussions on the provision of tangible and reliable security guarantees”, on the condition that: “Ukraine today protects Europe and provides Europe with security guarantees”. “[9]. “The only effective guarantee of security is joining NATO,” said Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, pointing to the Eastern European vision of the only reliable way to contain the aggression of the Russian Empire.

The Prime Minister of Germany, Olaf Scholz, did not come to the Republic of Moldova ready to take on the gloves, nor those thrown down by our strategic partner France, and even more so by Volodymyr Zelenskyi: “One thing is clear: now we contribute to the support of Ukraine. We have always said that there should also be guarantees of peace after the war. Germany will contribute to this. There are clear entry criteria. You cannot have, for example, border conflicts. Given the current situation, this is not about introduction. We should all focus on how we can support Ukraine individually.”[10].

While the leaders present in Bulboac tried in one way or another to express their support for Ukraine and the host country, the Republic of Moldova, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan expressed his opinion in his own style, making a last-minute decision to withdraw. participation in the meeting of the European political community.

Finally, with the votes of Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto and Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Hungary announced its pre-independence position: there is no question of inviting Ukraine to NATO.[11]. Viktor Orbán even went so far as to hypocritically advise Ukraine to abandon its planned counteroffensive this summer out of concern for its own people[12]: “Even a person like me, who has been in the army for a year and a half, knows for sure that if I attack, I will have three times more casualties than the one who defends. For a country with a small population of a part of the population of the opposing side to carry out large-scale military attacks under these circumstances are bloodshed. We must do everything, even before the counteroffensive begins, to convince the parties of the need for a ceasefire and peace talks.”

WHAT WILL NATO SAY?

In fact, the president of Ukraine understands very well that his country cannot become a member of NATO as long as it is in open war with Putin’s Russia, as he explained in his statement made to the press on Friday, June 2. conference with the President of Estonia Alan Karis[13]visiting Kyiv.

However, what President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hopes for from Vilnius includes several very important aspects for his country: (i) the foreseeable path to joining the alliance and developing the perspective of the international system of security guarantees, (ii) continuing to support Ukraine in the conflict with the aggressor state by Russia and (iii) guarantees of the absence of pressure on the country to conclude an unfair and fragile peace with Russia and, in a mirror, the preservation of the cohesion and determination of NATO member states in the defense of Western democracy against the challenges and threats of authoritarian great powers.

In this context, much depends on the position of the United States and the consensus reached by France and Germany, considering that other important members of the alliance have already made public their position in support of the cause of Ukraine, for example, this is the case of Great Britain, Poland, Romania or the Baltic countries.

The United States does not encourage the promotion of Ukraine’s invitation to the Alliance at the Vilnius stage, taking into account the realities on the front and the opinions of other NATO members. At the same time, the United States is strengthening bilateral relations with Ukraine, being its main support in the West, and is acting decisively to strengthen the Eastern European flank of the Alliance.

Also, the signal from Washington regarding the prospect of ending the conflict started by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is quite clear: there is no question of pressure on Kyiv to conclude an unfair peace.

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, present in the capital of Finland, the newest member of NATO, in a public statement rejected the idea of ​​territorial concessions that Ukraine should make in exchange for an end to hostilities on the front, calling it undesirable. perspective as “Potemkin peace”[14]:

“A cease-fire that would simply freeze the current front lines and allow Putin to consolidate his control over conquered territory and have a respite to rearm and then strike again is not a just and sustainable peace. This would legitimize the capture of the territory by Russia. This would reward the aggressor and punish the victim (…) Together with Ukraine and allies and partners, we are ready for a broader discussion on European security that promotes stability and transparency and reduces the likelihood of future conflicts.”

Since Putin’s Russia is unlikely (for now) to agree to peace talks unless they formalize a territorial abduction by force of arms, the signal the United States is sending to Vilnius is that the Alliance must be ready for long-term aid to support Ukraine’s war effort .

After the last (informal) consultations of the foreign ministers of the NATO member states, which took place recently in Oslo, to conclude the Vilnius agenda, the Secretary General of the Alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, summarized the discussions in the following statement Read the full article and comments on Contributors.ro