OUR global warmingconsequence changing of the climate billions of people are expected to be displaced, exposing them to unprecedented temperatures and extreme weather. The world is on track for a 2.7 degree Celsius temperature rise, meaning that by 2030, 2 billion people will experience average annual temperatures above 29 degrees Celsius, a level that very few communities have experienced before.

In countries with large populations and already warm climates, most people will have to migrate, with India and Nigeria facing the most immediate threats. India is already suffering from heat waves, and a recent study found that more than a third of deaths from 1991 to 2018 were a direct result of human-induced global warming.

The authors also looked at countries with the highest exposure to the most extreme temperatures by area. By this measure, Burkina Faso, Mali and Qatar face the worst effects of extreme heat, as no part of their territory will experience cooler temperatures.

Some countries facing the devastating effects of rising temperatures will do better if climate targets are met. In the Philippines, for example, 86 million people will live in extreme areas under the worst warming scenario, and that figure will drop to 186,000 if the world meets the UN targets.

Professor Tim Lenton of the University of Exeter in the UK, who led the new study, said: “The costs of global warming are often expressed in economic terms, but our study highlights the staggering human cost of failing to address the climate emergency.

“Economic valuations almost always value the rich more than the poor because they have more assets to lose and tend to value those who are living now rather than those who will be living in the future. In this study, we consider all people equal,” he says.