The World Meteorological Organization report shows that the years 2023-2027 are likely to be the warmest on record, with 2027 a good chance the crucial temperature threshold will be exceeded for the first time: an average of 1.5C higher than the second half of the 19th century

This value of 1.5 C has become a symbol of global climate change negotiations, and in 2015 the world reached an agreement in Paris to try to limit warming to no more than 1.5 C compared to the pre-industrial period, i.e. over 150 years. years ago, when there were neither polluting mega-factories nor cars.

The World Meteorological Organization has always given estimates of when the 1.5C target could be reached, and in 2020 there was only a 20% chance that the target would be reached by 2025. Now the probability that the symbolic goal will be achieved in the next five years has increased to 66%.

Perhaps crossing the 1.5 degree threshold will only be temporary, followed by a slight decline, but humanity has never been so close to the “1.5 degree” moment.

The very serious part is that the approach to this point shows us how much the harmful effects of human activities on the environment have accelerated.

More and more often we read about temperature records, be it January, April or July. More and more often we hear about stormy weather phenomena, such as rain, which, according to mathematical calculations, should occur once every few centuries.

The most recent example: January 2023 was the warmest first month of the year on record. The absolute maximum of January was also exceeded, the new record was +22.5 C in Tourna-Magurele. This value of 22.5 was surpassed in two days in April 2023, again showing just how impressive this record was.

Scientists use average temperature data from 1850-1900 as a basis for comparing how much the planet has warmed compared to the days when we didn’t rely on coal, oil and gas.

For decades, the threshold for a dangerous shock was thought to be two degrees, but in 2018 this threshold was revised downward to 1.5 C. In 2016, the warmest year on record, the planet was 1.28 C warmer than in the second half of the 19th century. .

Sources: BBC, Guardian