A war to conquer the island would wipe out all the progress Beijing has made in the past 40 years.

“Hide your gaze, wait patiently.” This famous advice from Deng Xiaoping has served China well for the past 40 years. Deng, the leader whose economic policies transformed China, understood that if his country wanted to become richer and stronger, it needed to avoid confrontation with the West.

But Xi Jinping, who has ruled China since 2012, has concluded that the era of “patient waiting” is over. He speaks of a China that “dare to fight.” Even if Xi does not mean that his country should literally go to war, he has already signaled – in word and deed – that Beijing is now ready to confront its foreign rivals.

Xi claims that his policy is a response to US aggression.

In his speech, urging the Chinese people to “dare to fight”, he accused the US of pursuing a policy of “containment and suppression” of China.

But Xi’s diagnosis of the situation in China is flawed in three key respects. America’s intentions are being misinterpreted. This exaggerates the danger that US policy poses to the Chinese economy. Instead, he underestimates the risk of confrontation with the US.

There are Chinese officials and academics who often say in private that the US is trying to undermine China’s rise by trying to lure it into a war over Taiwan. But even if Washington had set such a trap for him (it didn’t), it would have been easy to avoid. All Xi needs to do is refrain from attacking or blockading Taiwan.

Like the Japanese in the interwar period, the Chinese complain that the US is trying to strangle their economy. America denies any such intentions, explaining that technology export restrictions are carefully calibrated to target only Chinese weapons. But even if the US had a larger plan to undermine China’s economic growth, any such action would likely fail.

The founder of Microsoft recently told me, “I don’t think the US will ever be able to stop China from having great chips.”

Like all other countries, China has its problems. But its economic growth remains impressive. According to forecasts, this year China will become the largest exporter of cars, ahead of Japan.

China is particularly advancing in the field of electric vehicles, which will dominate in the future. Bill Gates argues that US restrictions on technology exports are likely to be counterproductive, encouraging China to develop its own capabilities much faster. The founder of Microsoft recently told me, “I don’t think the US will ever be able to stop China from having great chips.”

The management of some of the most influential Western companies, such as Apple’s Tim Cook, categorically stated that they have no intention of giving up on China.

As a self-proclaimed Marxist, Xi must understand that global political power derives from economic power. China does not need to win any war to expand its power and influence in the world. Trade, financial aid and investment will do their job without the risks and bloodshed of war.

There are more than 120 countries in the world for which China is the largest trading partner – far more than the United States. Which gives China considerable leverage.

America is disappointed that so many countries of the “Global South” are waiting for a war in Ukraine

But countries increasingly heeding China, seeking trade and investment in return, such as Brazil and Indonesia, will pay Beijing at least as much attention as Washington on major international issues. This is especially true for countries that are heavily indebted to China, such as Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Angola and Zambia.

China’s ability to build infrastructure also creates leverage implicitly. One US official sighs that the US cannot afford to compete with the sums of money that China is lavishing on Southeast Asia. And China’s influence extends far beyond its immediate surroundings. Chinese firms are currently building metro systems in the capitals of Egypt and Colombia.

So how could anything go wrong under these conditions? The answer is obvious – war. China is clearly preparing to invade Taiwan. Xi’s nationalist rhetoric is creating a dangerous mix of arrogance and paranoia in Beijing. Tung Zhao, an academic, is concerned that Xi is “putting himself in a bind” on Taiwan.

But if Xi pulls the trigger on Taiwan – and America gets involved in the conflict, as President Joe Biden has promised – then the Chinese leader will start World War III with unforeseeable consequences for his own country and the world.

And even if Taiwan surrenders quickly and the US does not intervene, China’s image on the globe will be forever changed. All Western companies and all countries that are currently undecided about China will be forced to join the tough sanctions regime. The globalized economy will collapse – at a huge cost to the world.

Despite the risks involved, Xi may think that conquering Taiwan will secure his place in the history books as the leader who ushered in the “great revival of the Chinese people.”

But leaders who keep one eye on the history books often find that events spiral out of control. Vladimir Putin is the latest dictator whose hopes for a quick and glorious war have been horribly dashed. Putin led a country that could no longer claim the status of a great power based on economic strength. Xi still has an open economic path to national greatness. He must step on it.

Article by Gideon Rahman, supported by Rador.