Turkey’s election on Sunday is a key moment not only within the country, but also for its European neighbors. As President Recep Tayyip Erdogan faces his toughest electoral challenge in two decades, members of the European Union and NATO are eager to see if there will be changes in the country that will affect them on issues ranging from security to migration and energy, Reuters reports.

Relations between Erdogan and the European Union have become extremely strained in recent years, as the 27-member bloc is not keen on becoming a member of Ankara, as Turkey wanted, and has condemned its crackdown on human rights, the independence of the judiciary and press freedom.

On the other hand, important NATO members, of which Turkey is a part, have expressed concern about Erdogan’s close relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin and suspect that Turkey is being used to evade sanctions imposed on Moscow after the war in Ukraine.

Erdogan’s opponent, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, promised more freedom in the country and a rapprochement of foreign policy with the West.

Regardless of the outcome, Turkey’s European neighbors will use the election and its aftermath to assess their relationship with Ankara and the extent to which it can be reset.

According to officials, diplomats and analysts, there are several key aspects that will guide European countries.

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Worst case scenario

EU officials were careful not to give preference to one candidate or another, but they said they would be wary of vote manipulation, violence or other election interference.

“It is important that the process itself is fair and free,” said Serhii Lagodinsky, a German MEP who co-chairs a joint group of MEPs from the EU and Turkey.

Peter Stano, a spokesman for the EU’s diplomatic service, said the EU bloc expected the vote to be “transparent and inclusive” and conducted in accordance with the democratic standards that Turkey has pledged to uphold.

The worst-case scenario for both Turkey and the EU would be a controversial result – possibly after a second round of voting – that would prompt the current president to launch a campaign to suppress the protests, Dimitar Bechev said. the author of a book about Turkey under Erdogan.

Turkey with Erdogan, NATO’s weak link

“Five more years with Erdogan means five more years of Turkey being the weak link for NATO and the strong link for Russia,” says Mark Pierini, a former EU ambassador to Turkey who is now a senior fellow at the think tank of the Carnegie Europe Center. .

Erdogan has upset other NATO members by buying Russia’s S-400 missile defense system and doing nothing to strengthen NATO’s eastern flank.

The first test to see whether the winner of the election is willing to restore ties with NATO will be if he stops blocking Sweden’s entry. Erdogan has asked Stockholm to extradite Kurdish fighters, but Swedish courts have blocked some deportations.

Analysts and diplomats expect Kilicdaroglu to end the block on Sweden’s NATO membership, prompting Hungary – another country on hold – to follow suit. This could allow Sweden to join the NATO summit in Lithuania in July.

Some analysts and diplomats say Erdogan may also drop his objections after the election, but others are unconvinced.

Turkey’s relations with Russia

Although Erdogan has tried to strike a balance between Moscow and the West, his political relationship with Putin and Turkey’s economic ties with Russia are a source of frustration for the EU. This is likely to continue if Erdogan gets a new mandate.

If Kilicdaroglu wins the election, European officials are likely to be content with a gradual disengagement from Moscow, recognizing that Turkey is in the midst of a cost-of-living crisis and that the Turkish economy is heavily dependent on Russia.

“As for Russia, the new government will be very careful,” Bechev believes.

Kilicdaroglu showed this week that he does not shy away from criticizing Russia, publicly accusing Moscow of involvement in fake material that circulated on social media in the run-up to Sunday’s vote. However, in an interview with Reuters a few days before the election, he made it clear that if he becomes president, he will maintain good relations between Ankara and Moscow.

If Kılıçdaroğlu and his coalition win, the EU will be interested to see if he follows through on promises to release Erdogan’s critics from jail under rulings by the European Court of Human Rights and generally improve the state’s standards.

“The EU will take a wait-and-see position,” Pierini said.

If there is a real fight against corruption, European companies may want to make big investments in Turkey again, possibly with the support of the EU and member state governments, the analyst says.

Efforts to expand the EU-Turkey customs union to include more goods and allow Turks to travel to the EU without visas could also be revived.

Turkey and the Cyprus problem

But none of these actions will be easy, especially because of the division of the island of Cyprus. The internationally recognized Greek Cypriot government is a member of the EU, while the separatist Turkish Cypriot state is recognized only by Ankara.

“This is, of course, a big obstacle in our relations,” says MEP Lagodynskyi.

However, EU officials do not see many signs that Kilicdaroglu will change much in Cyprus politics.

“Here, the agenda of the candidates does not look fundamentally different,” said a high-ranking EU official.

Cyprus is one of many factors that make a resumption of Turkey’s EU accession talks unlikely, officials and analysts say. EU leaders have nominated Turkey as a candidate to join the bloc since 2004, but talks stalled years ago.

“There are many other ways to strengthen relations and create trust. There is already a lot of European money that has arrived in Turkey,” the European diplomat said.

“I don’t know anyone in Europe who wants to revive the EU accession negotiations,” he admits. (news.ro)