Sunday, May 14, is an important day for the future of Turkey, because the future of this country depends on the results of the presidential and parliamentary elections. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may face his toughest challenge since 2002 for the first time. That’s because several polls show his candidacy ahead of Kemal Kilicdaroglu (read: Kilicdaroglu), the candidate from the opposition alliance, by at least 6 percentage points. Kemal Kilicdaroglu is the leader of the largest opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP). He is the candidate of a very motley alliance consisting of 6 nationalist, secularist and conservative parties. The Western press already sees Erdogan as the big loser of this election, trying to outline the post-election scenarios.

Why could Erdogan lose the election?

After coming to power in 2002, Erdogan promised the Turkish people that he would fight corruption, poverty and restrictions placed on Turkish citizens. After 21 years of rule, we have the following picture: a huge devaluation of the Turkish lira (from 2021 the value of the national currency has reached the lowest level in history), exorbitant prices for basic services, unemployment has reached record levels (one in ten Turks and one in 5 young Turks are unemployed ). Three million people became poorer in just three years. The galloping rate of inflation has exceeded 80 percent, the highest level in 25 years. About 48 percent of the working population lives on the minimum wage in the economy. Against the background of this sad economic picture, the mass migration of qualified doctors, engineers and IT specialists has increased significantly. All these pessimistic numbers and forecasts have a strong negative psychological impact on Turks, and this is very easy to feel in a society where many families are already on the brink of existence.

Popularly, many Turks say that the Erdogan era can be divided into four stages:

1. In the period 2002-2007, Erdogan behaved like a journeyman or “forced student”, and the reforms implemented during this period led to the rapid economic development of the country, winning the sympathy and support of the Turkish people.

2. In the period 2007-2011, he gradually became a “team leader” respected by the business environment and fellow party members.

3. 2011-2015 years. During this period, Turkey is embroiled in the war in Syria, and Turkey’s foreign policy is increasingly characterized as neo-Ottoman and imperialist. Corruption scandals, protests in Gezi Park lay the foundations of an authoritarian regime. In 2014, Erdogan became the president of Turkey, having received the majority of votes.

4. The 2015-2023 period is turbulent for the Erdogan regime. A failed coup d’état in 2016 led to the persecution of many Turks from various walks of life suspected of links to the Hizmet movement, which is led by the exiled cleric Fethullah Gülen. Due to the 2017 referendum, Turkey becomes a presidential republic, Erdogan gains control over all state institutions, opposition parties accuse him of establishing a one-man, nationalist, conservative and authoritarian regime. The decline of Erdogan’s regime was accelerated by defeats in local elections in Istanbul and Ankara, with Republican People’s Party candidates Ekrem Imamoglu becoming mayor of Istanbul and Mansur Yavas mayor of the capital Ankara.

It seems the Turks no longer want to be ruled by one man. The survey data speaks for itself. In the election headquarters of President Erdogan, these data are clearly irritated. In recent days, during meetings with voters of opposition representatives, less pleasant incidents have occurred. During a speech by Ekrem Imamoglu in the city of Erzurum, he was attacked with stones and several people were injured. Another proof of nervousness and irritation is the broadcast of President Erdogan himself during a meeting in Istanbul (allegedly deepfake) with PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party – banned in Turkey) militants who say they will vote for Kemal Kilicdaroglu. The candidate from the opposition coalition blamed Russia for these fakes. (I wrote about the possible interference of Russian trolls in the elections in Turkey in this article https://www.contributors.ro/alegeri-cruciale-in-turcia-de-ce-ar-vrea-putin-sa-cistige-erdogan/) Indignation and sharp comments can also be seen in the editorials of journalists enslaved by the authorities.

The votes of three layers of society can be decisive in these elections:

1. Voting of ethnic Kurdish voters. Kurds make up about 20 percent of the country’s population. The imprisoned leader of the People’s Democratic Party (HDP) called on his supporters to vote for Kilicdaroglu.

2. Undecided voters may affect the results of these elections.

3. Young voters. More than 6 million young voters will cast their ballots for the first time in this election. Some commentators say that these 6 million young people could significantly influence the outcome of the election.

But there are voices from the more than 4 million Syrian refugees who have since been offered Turkish citizenship. They use social institutions, which many Turks are extremely dissatisfied with. Free access to healthcare, education, business opportunities, amenities and tax breaks are just some of the things Syrians get in Turkey.

Erdogan’s election campaign was a great opportunity to review the achievements of the ruling party. The presentation of the first aircraft carrier, the ceremonial opening of the nuclear power plant in Akkuyu, the presentation of the first Turkish-made electric car, the discovery of gas deposits in the Black Sea, the lowering of the retirement age, and the increase of civil servants. Servants’ wages rose by 45% to €700 were just some of the good news. which President Erdogan himself wanted to inform.

Why could Kilicdaroglu win the presidential election?

Because Turks want change. I say this not because of ignorance, but because I have been among them for 10 years. Opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu is politically the antipode of President Erdogan. Often called the “Gandhi of Turkey” by his supporters, his campaign message is pacifist, balanced and, most importantly, he has managed to unite several sections of the population, given the motley coalition he is running for. The main slogan of his campaign “I promise you, spring will come again” is a line from a famous Turkish song, which is a campaign promise to change the political regime in Turkey. This is the first time in the history of modern Turkey that a presidential candidate has publicly declared his religious denomination. Although the Turks knew this, Kilicdaroglu used this strategy against Erdogan’s accusations. Kilicdaroglu claimed to be an Alevi, a religious minority of Islam. Alevis make up about a quarter of Turkey’s population. Some Muslims, especially Sunnis, believe that Alevis are not true Muslims. Kilicdaroglu’s speeches from his humble kitchen, mostly with his wife, convey the following message: “I live like all of you, I have a humble life like all of you.” In addition, he promised that if he wins the election, he will refuse to live in the luxurious presidential palace, where Erdogan lives, and will live in Cankaya Palace, where the founder of the Turkish Republic, Atatürk, once lived. In a society polarized and divided along ethnic or religious lines, he promises to become the president of all 85 million Turks. Among the pre-election promises are a return to the parliamentary political system, restoration of the rule of law, improvement of the quality of life and the fight against corruption and poverty.

Many commentators, both Turkish and foreign, say that the devastating earthquakes of February 6 could affect the outcome of the election, but things look a bit ambiguous on this issue. However, the residents of the earthquake-affected area preferred Erdogan and his party. The poor management of the crisis and the intervention of special teams only after the third day after the earthquake angered and angered many people in that area. But chaos still reigns there. It is not known who died, because many graves are only numbered, so the name of the deceased is not inscribed. It is for this reason that the opposition warns that falsification of elections in favor of the AKP may be carried out in this territory. – Read the entire article and comment on Contributors.ro