Electoral numerology is often accompanied by riddles. While in today’s fair-electoral democracy, election numbers don’t lie, they don’t always speak for themselves. While they capture the electoral decision of voters and map the geographic distribution of party preferences, when combined with pre-election and exit polls, they provide answers to the question “who voted for what”, but leave the picture unclear in terms of critical pieces for compiling an electoral puzzle They are related to the motives of electoral choice, the main dynamics observed in the electorate, as well as the dilemmas of voters when making their electoral decision. In addition, electoral arithmetic does not allow the naked eye to see the full range of existing electoral dispositions and does not reveal possible coincidences/convergences in voters’ electoral preferences that make voters competitive for a larger number of parties.

The double elections in May-June 2012 have been characterized as “earthquake elections” (G. Voulgaris and Il. Nikolakopoulos, 2014). These were two electoral rivalries in which the routine of party competition established in the post-colonial period was reversed: solid bipartisanship, rotation of ruling parties in power, strengthening of one-party governments, limited parliamentary multipartyism, inhibition of party extremism went up in smoke in the thirties, a month after the parliamentary elections in October 2009. While the first interpretation of their arithmetic seemed to confirm the modus operandi of post-colonialism, a deeper 2007 would show that under the “normality” of numbers, processes were emerging that showed post-colonization was at a turning point. Even before the “earthquake” of 2012, the electorate entered the phase of revising its electoral preferences: despite the comfortable dominance of the ND. in 2007, this probably would not have happened if the emotional reaction (mostly fear) caused by the deadly fires in Ilya did not set in motion a model of rallying around the existing political leadership (the rally around the flag effect), contributing to Costas’ election victory. Karamanlis. Based on opinion polls, in 2009 PASOK probably wouldn’t have had one of its best electoral results had it not been for ND. with its then leader, it essentially did not give up its claims to the first place, and if PASOK itself, in the context of a global recession and an unprecedented internal crisis, did not underestimate the difficulties (P. Kapsis, 2022), cultivating false hopes (“there is money”) for voters . The methodical launching of citizens’ expectations did temporarily bring PASOK votes, but the rapid denial of expectations, caused by the country’s debt crisis and PASOK’s inability to manage it, set in motion a process of decline that affected not only PASOK (“pasokification”). , but also polluted the ND, giving the basis for the logic of “opposition to the establishment” and the anti-systemism that began to dominate.

Although there was a bipartisan bloodbath in the 2012 dual elections and a major shock from the humiliating electoral defeat of PASOK and the ND, the electorate had been in a state of turmoil since the middle of the decade in 2000. The economic crisis and the inclusion of Greece in the defense mechanism and the memos hastened and dramatized the collapse of the party system, overturning the established logic of party competition. However, the process of separation of voters by parties and party alienation has been going on before. The result of these processes was the weakening of the center and the simultaneous strengthening of the edges of the party system (E. Dinas, L. Rory, 2013), while a distinct part of the electorate denied their self-positioning on the left-right axis, previously leveling the ground for the entry of anti-system formations into the party arena.

If anything particularly characterizes the 2012 double elections, it is the predominance of an upward socio-political dynamic that has reshaped the regional electoral arena. In other words, currents are revealed that until then were only visible at the local level and which, by the time of the 2012 elections, had spread throughout the territory, influencing the central political scene: from the “castle” of the Golden Dawn to Agios Panteleimon and the quarters of the 6th and In the 4th municipality, within which Golden Dawn created a strong zone of influence already in 2008, a neo-Nazi formation with police characteristics (militia) is gaining visibility and electoral influence throughout the territory, gaining 7% of the vote in two of its polls, May -June 2012 This upward trend also applies to left-wing movements (“Indignant” in the lower square, movements in Keratei, “Don’t Cry”, etc.), which functioned as electoral reservoirs supplying supporters to parties on the radical left spectrum, mainly SYRIZA, who electorally benefited from the explosion of dynamism of the period.

An upward socio-political dynamic prevailed that reshaped the electoral arena.

Analyzing the 2012 elections, the focus is primarily on SYRIZA, a kinetic party that started the elections promising to “reverse” the course of the country until then. With Greece on a Europeanization course in previous decades, the promise of a “turn” has fueled Eurosceptic and Euro-negative sentiment that set the stage for a No victory in the 2015 referendum. Interest is also focused on the Golden Dawn case, whose rise reflected the mood revenge “against the system”, while its acts of violent activity unleashed the authoritarian moods characteristic of the segment of the electorate from one end of the ideological spectrum to the other.

Extreme polarization and centrifugal dynamics characterized the “electoral earthquake” of 2012. As with any seismic shock, the question was whether it was a major earthquake. In the case of the 2012 double elections, the party system was already shattered and extremely vulnerable. The 2012 dual rivalry hastened the disintegration of the political party, preserving the transient characteristics of the Greek political scene, culminating in the 2015 dual elections dominated by SYRIZA and the idiosyncratic co-management of SYRIZA-ANEL.

Race

It’s been four years since the Euro 2008 disaster, but we’re playing a little better in stadiums in Poland and Ukraine and have reached the quarter-finals where Angela Merkel’s Germany awaits us. The anti-German sentiment is in full swing (memoranda gar), but not enough to avoid a 4-2 defeat. However, the goal of Yorgos Samaras, which equalized the score (1:1), is celebrated vigorously.

A loss

It was January 24th and Thodoros Angelopoulos started filming his new film The Other Sea in the regional Drapetsonas street in Keratsini. A passing motorcycle hits him and mortally wounds him. The untimely end of a great creator.

Trend

Instagram has taken its first steps since 2010, but it wasn’t until 2012 that it became available to Android mobile users as well, greatly increasing its influence base. Thus, if in July 2012 it had only 80 million users, then ten years later this number jumped to 1.28 billion. Thus, it is quickly becoming the most influential platform for new products and trends.

What do I remember?

On the morning before the second elections in 2012, I went to vote in Orchomenos Beothias, and from there I went to my office at the Ministry of Finance. It was the elections that changed the political scene.

Europe was very concerned about political instability. The ECB thought that in the event that the winner of the election abandoned the economic program and the euro, the same night to request guarantees from the Eurogroup to help provide liquidity to the Greek banking system. In essence, this would shift the responsibility for “covering the fork” to the political level. In those days, the outflow of deposits from the banking system exceeded 1 billion euros per day.

Greece had to be ready, so together with the experienced Thassos Bano, who sadly left early, I prepared in the strictest secrecy the drafts of the relevant decisions and legislation, which were to come into force on the night of the elections. Folder in hand, I went to Maxim’s, waiting for the election results and possibly a nightly invitation to an emergency Eurogroup. There are results, the phone did not ring, the folder was destroyed.

George Zanias
Economist, academic, former minister of finance in service
government P. Pikramenou.

City

Amid the gloom of the economic crisis and political tensions, the news of the start of construction of the cultural center of the Stavros Niarchos Foundation somewhat raised the morale of the Athenians. The new objects of the National Library and the National Opera House are signed by a famous name in world architecture (Italian Renzo Piano), and the scale of the reconstruction actualizes the debate about the opening of Athens on the coast. The project, donated by the Stavros Niarchos Foundation, will be implemented in five years.

Fact

It was another big anti-memorial demonstration. By the evening of February 12, 2012, the situation was out of control. Dozens of buildings in the city center caught fire. As part of the march passes along Stadiou Street, Molotov cocktails are also aimed at the entrance to the building where the Attikon and Apollon cinemas are located. The complex immediately ignites, the fire spreads to the floor. In the end, the flames will not penetrate the two halls. But two of the historic cinemas remain decommissioned to this day, and the building is in a notoriously poor state of repair.

Ms. Vasiliki Georgiadu is Professor of Political Science at Panteion University, Director and Chairman of the Board of Directors. National Center for Social Research (EKKE).

Production Manager: Dimitris Rigopoulos