Humanity could face a new record for average global temperatures in 2023 or 2024, driven by climate change and the expected return of the El Niño weather phenomenon, scientists specializing in climate evolution announced on Thursday, Reuters and Agerpres reported.

Climate models show that after three years of La Niña-related weather patterns in the Pacific Ocean, which overall slightly lowered global temperatures, humanity could see the return of El Niño, its milder counterpart, in the second half of the century this year .

During an El Niño event, westerly winds along the equator decrease and warm seawater is pushed eastward, creating warmer ocean surface temperatures.

“El Nino is usually associated with record temperatures around the world. Whether it will happen in 2023 or 2024 is not yet known, but I think it is more likely,” said Carlo Buontempo, director of the European Union’s Copernicus climate change service.

Climate models suggest a return to El Niño-related conditions by the end of the Northern Hemisphere summer and the possibility of intense El Niño conditions by the end of this year, Carlo Buontempo said.

The hottest year so far was 2016, which coincided with a strong El Niño event, although climate change has caused extreme temperatures even in years without the event.

The past eight years have been the warmest on record, reflecting a long-term warming trend in the global climate caused by greenhouse gas emissions.

Fears that El Nino will bring unbearable temperatures

Friederike Otto, a senior lecturer at Imperial College London’s Grantham Institute, said El Niño-induced temperatures could exacerbate the effects of climate change already faced by countries around the world, including severe heat waves, droughts and wildfires.

“If El Niño does not develop, there is already a good chance that 2023 will be even warmer than 2016, given that the planet continues to warm because people continue to burn fossil fuels,” added Friederike Otto.

Scientists involved in Europe’s Copernicus program published a report on Thursday that analyzed extreme climate conditions recorded around the world in 2022, which ranked as the fifth hottest year on record.

In 2022, Europe faced its hottest summer on record, while heavy rainfall fueled by climate change caused devastating floods in Pakistan, and Antarctica’s ice level fell to its lowest level on record in February.

The average global temperature is now 1.2 degrees Celsius higher than in the pre-industrial period, experts from the European Copernicus program said. Although most of the world’s biggest polluters have committed to reducing their net emissions to zero, global CO2 emissions continued to rise in 2022.

PHOTO article: Vladischern / Dreamstime.com.