The backstab and behind-the-scenes marathon that saw six opposition parties nominate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu for the presidency of Turkey undermined the credibility of his opponents. Erdogana fact that is expected to be recorded in the polls as well.

Özer Senjar, president of the sociological company Metropoll, who is considered one of the most influential sociologists in Turkey, states that “There have been two earthquakes in Turkey. The first was a natural disaster and the second was in politics. The “Good Party” at first with great reaction refused to support Kılıçdaroğlu, and three days later accepted it. You will not find this easily in our policy. During the devastating earthquake in February, the percentages of the NAP (Nationalist Action Party) did not change, Erdogan’s AKP lost 4 points, the CHP (Kemals) 2 points and the Good Party 1.5 points. The interest of the Labor Party has increased! When we asked in February who you prefer, Erdogan or Kılıçdaroğlu, the percentages were 42.7% Erdoğan and 41.4% Kılıçdaroğlu. Almost equal. But that was before the political earthquake. In our new survey, which we will be launching in the coming days, we will reduce the effects of the earthquake and see what comes out of the Axener changes. Also, before the earthquake, AKP was at 39% and after the earthquake it dropped to 35%, while CHP was at 27% and dropped to 25%.”

However, other smaller polling companies show that despite disagreements and arguments with Good Party chairman Meral Aksener, Kılıçdaroğlu is ahead of Erdoğan. According to ALF and ORC, Kilicdaroglu’s percentage ranges from 54% to 56.8%, followed by Erdogan from 43% to 45%.

“Indeed, today’s data show that the probability of Kılıçdaroglu’s victory is greater now than it seemed in the past. In opinion polls taken before his candidacy was announced, the Republican People’s Party (CHP) president had lower percentages. But experts told us that when the uncertainty goes away, so will the behavior of voters. Polls so far show this, although not from the most serious and large research companies. However, data coming from research centers also show that Kılıçdaroğlu could win the election. There is a positive climate there,” journalist Nevsin Mengyu, an experienced political commentator for the Turkish television network Fox, tells us.

Özer Senjar is much more restrained and cautious in this atmosphere of optimism and states that “there are not only PKK supporters or atheist Kurds in the pro-Kurdish HDP, but also religious ones. When we ask HDP voters who they would vote for, 25% of them do not support Kilicdaroglu.” He states that the fact that Kilicdaroglu is an Alevi also influences voter preferences. “This is the Middle East. In the depths of Anatolia, there are still remnants of tension between Sunnis and Alevis, ”he emphasizes.

The “Good Party” at first refused to support Kılıçdaroglu, reacting harshly, and accepted it three days later.

Erdogan has often made no secret of his preference for Kemal Kilicdaroglu as his opponent, as he has lost two referendums, three general elections and one presidential election since he took over as head of the Republican People’s Party in 2010. In addition, defeat in municipal elections is counted. But the CHP president also has a victory in the 2019 elections, as for the first time his party won in the municipalities of Istanbul and Ankara with their elected mayors, that is, with Ekrem Imamoglu and Mansur Yavas. “Yes, of course, he seemed to be the opponent that Erdogan would like, but now Kılıçdaroğlu will start a big campaign, he will go to 81 cities. He will not be alone, both mayors will be with him, and they will tour with him. Well, for Erdogan, this will not be such an easy task, ”Ms Mengiu believes.

She adds that “there was a meeting of Erdogan’s strategic headquarters, and now they will probably deal with the issue of the HDP Kurds. Many leaders of the Good Party are sensitive to this issue and do not want to sit at the same table with the Kurds. Accordingly, the HDP also does not want to consult with the Kemalites. At this point, the government will try to provoke the opposition. He will try to provoke the Good Party voters and its cadres (using the Kurds as a scarecrow). For Erdogan to win, he will have to spoil the opposition’s image of unity.”

“Kilichdaroglu is at war not only with Erdogan, but also with the state. Erdogan represents security, justice, economy. 20 years! So far, the opposition is only presenting itself,” he adds.

In Ankara, almost everyone agrees that Kurdish voters will elect the next president of Turkey, as the percentage of the pro-Kurdish HDP hovers around 10%. HDP chairman Selahattin Demirtas, along with hundreds of mayors and party officials, have been imprisoned for links to the terrorist organization PKK. In the coming days, Kemal Kilicdaroglu is expected to try to appeal to the HDP with the common goal of overthrowing Erdogan.

However, Senjar warns that “for the opposition to win, Kılıçdaroğlu must be fully supported by the voters of the three parties: the CHP, the Good Party and the HDP. May there be no loss. This is not an easy case. 30% of the Good Party do not support him. The same distance from the opposition candidate seems to be maintained by 25% of the HDP and 2/3 of the undecided.”