The Social Democrats and Liberals have begun to make calculations and political strategies for the general election, which, if held on time, will be held in 2024. The prognosis does not look good for PSD and PNL, who, from the position of the party government, see the percentages slip through their fingers, and they feel the breath of George Simion and the rise of GOLD on their necks.

Photo of the moment with PSD and PNL

With two months to go before taking over the government, and with a number of reforms and milestones to complete in order to receive money from the European Union, the Social Democrats and Liberals are starting to make analyzes and scenarios about the chances of staying in power after the election. However, the calculations do not work.

PSD leaders know that once they take over the leadership of the government, the party will face a number of challenges that they will have to deal with. The cancellation of special pensions, the marking of boundaries in the PNRR without which European money will not come, the adoption of laws on education, rising prices and inflation along with the need to raise salaries for various categories are just some of them. points that PSD will have to manage and depending on this will be the electoral settlement.

• Government round may be postponed until autumn – official sources / Pension law and benchmarks in PNRR are bone of contention between PSD and PNL

On the other hand, some of the PNL leaders are looking forward to the PSD taking over the government and starting to decide before the voters what measures the government should take.

Currently, there is tension in the coalition between PSD and PNL. The agreement between Marcel Çolaku and Nicolae Chouquet on the division of ministries has collapsed, and the Liberals are demanding that the protocol signed in 2021 be strictly followed.

In the PNL, Nicolae Chuke’s seat is being shaken by some PNL vice-presidents who have abandoned the deal with the PSD on key government ministries. Chuke had to take a step back, and this was evident at the last meeting of the PNL, when first vice-presidents Dan Motreanu, Rares Bohdan and vice-presidents Robert Sigarteu and Alina Gorghiu asked the prime minister to postpone the vote for the head of the Permanent Electoral Body, where the parliament was going to approve a person from PSD – Tony Grebla.

• Why the confirmation of Tony Grable as the head of AEP was delayed / PNL wants to review the head of the institution / What is at stake

PSD and PNL are seriously considering an alliance in the elections

In this context, within a limited framework, at the level of PSD and PNL leaders, a number of election preparation scenarios began to circulate.

PSD and PNL sources told HotNews.ro that political calculations currently show that the two parties should go together in an alliance in the general election.

Discussions have been publicly resumed following the resignation of Cipriani Cuca from PNL Bucharest and the possibility of a PSD-PNL alliance to support a single candidate for the Capital.

In the internal polls of the two parties, the PSD is estimated at around 30%, the PNL at 20%, the AUR at -19%, while the USR has only 12%.

“We did the analysis and the AUR is over 20% and in all the focus groups they don’t have a handbrake. People do not perceive them as extremists. They have the same electoral prospects as PSD now, they can collect percentages equal to PSD in Romania today. Today we know the scores of the games. Next year, we can’t know what it will look like. The big problem is that PSD and PNL will lose their current percentages next year, and the chances of getting a stable majority are diminishing. Now PNL is 20%, in 2024 they may drop to 15%, PSD is 30% and will drop to 25%, a majority of 40% will be the limit,” PSD sources explained to Hotnews.ro.

And the Liberals admit that there is a risk that AUR will overtake them in the general election.

“For the PNL, the option of going to the general election alone is unprofitable, because we risk ending up in third place, below the AUR. The chances that the PNL will go to the elections alone are very small, so we will have to go together. The reality is that in the short term we would win the election, but in the long term it will affect the party,” PNL sources explained.

In light of these gloomy forecasts, PSD and PNL have different options for retaining power.

Extreme PSD Scenario: Expected for most

Sources in the PSD claim that the scenario of early elections was discussed within the party.

“If the government fails in 2023, the PSD will assemble it. Let’s be realistic in 2023, prices may skyrocket, salary increments will go nowhere, and money from the budget depends on the performance of PNRR indicators. If you make early elections, you make them for four years. Now we have 30%, with the redistribution PSD takes 35%. Remain in the parliament with 35% for four years,” HotNews.ro sources explain the calculations made.

The scenario of early elections is difficult to implement. Parliament must reject the appointment of two governments, and the president can initiate early elections. “The motivation behind this option is that you cannot turn 2024 into a political battle and that you need a stable government for a long period of time,” the cited sources explained.

Hotnews.ro sources claim that this scenario launched by the Social Democrats has not been discussed at the coalition level with PNL leaders or with President Klaus Iohannis, but Nicolae Chuke and Lucian Bode are no strangers to discussions at the highest level. PSD.

Liberals insist on consolidation of elections

On the other hand, liberals advocate the need to combine local elections with parliamentary elections in September 2024.

“In 2024, Romania will be an ungovernable country with four rounds of elections. From March, the campaign for the European Parliament will start, and the country will be in a deadlock, a complete deadlock during the year during which you have to implement the envisaged reforms,” PNL sources explained.

Procedurally, this can be achieved by a Government decision and announcement of the decision at least one year before the election.

• PNL tries political maneuver to preserve its numbers in 2024 / Chuke is the third prime minister who wants to combine elections, but he has some problems

It will be recalled that at the beginning of the year, PSD expected that after assuming the post of prime minister, she would also keep several key portfolios that would help the party improve its public image. More precisely, Marcel Čolaku agreed with Nicolae Chuke that the PSD should keep the Ministry of Transport and even the Ministry of Finance, while the Liberals should keep European funds and justice. The deal has sparked discontent among PNL leaders, who have put pressure on Chuke to uphold the protocol signed in 2021.

• What lies behind PSD’s open attacks on PNL / Location of camps in the perspective of the May round

After the failure of the Cholaku-Chuke agreement, there was information that the government checkpoint could be postponed until the fall. The source of the information was released by the government, and PSD president Marcel Cholaku appeared to be concerned about it. The PSD announced that it does not agree with postponing the construction of the ring road until the fall and that the change of executive leadership should take place in time.

Apart from petty calculations about maintaining current interest rates, for PSD and PNL responsible governance and the creation of necessary reforms are on the back burner. The two parties will still govern by focusing on elections and the “threat” of AUR, although the two big problems could be solved by simply trying to govern for the citizens.