12 months of war in Ukraine gave no prospects for peace. On the contrary, the conflict is getting rougher than ever. However, the hypothesis of a Russian victory has become completely implausible, Nicolas Gosse, a researcher at the Royal Institute of Defense (IRSD), told Le Vif.

How can the war in Ukraine end? Three scenarios remain on the table for the conflict, which began almost a year ago:

• victory of Ukraine,
• long deadlock
• Russian victory.

But according to Nicolas Gossett, a researcher at the Royal Institute of Defense (IRSD), the latest hypothesis has become completely implausible.

“A clear victory for Russia, that is, the achievement of all initial goals, is absolutely unlikely. If Russia’s military superiority in the coming months is truly overwhelming, then Putin may return to the initial maximum goals of the war – the destruction of the Ukrainian army, the capture of Kyiv and the occupation of the country up to the Dniester, says Gossett.

But when we see what is happening on the ground today, the situation is not such as to allow them to achieve these goals.

In his speech, Putin hinted that Russia will continue until the initial goals are met. But these are just words. The mobilization that began in September turned out to be extremely chaotic. Of the 300,000 mobilized, 150,000 are already on Ukrainian territory.

What did they manage to do? Light traffic, a few kilometers back and forth. But the subjugation of Bakhmut is not yet final. And the attempt to break through Ugledar failed.

Therefore, I am quite wary of the idea of ​​a scenario with a crushing Russian advantage. In addition, a clear victory for Russia would require a radical reform of its army, which is impossible to achieve in wartime” (Rador).

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