Russia is unlikely to achieve its goal of capturing the city of Bakhmut by February 24. when a year has passed since the beginning of the invasion, analysts from the Institute for the Study of War believe.

National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov said Moscow plans to capture Bakhmut to mark the first year of the war, but that would force the Russians to advance faster than they have done in recent months, ISW noted.

However, Russian forces do not appear to be accelerating the pace of their advance and are unlikely to achieve this stated goal by February 24.

A Ukrainian official claims that Russia is also planning to carry out a large-scale series of missile strikes as a sign of the invasion.

Wagner’s commander, Yevgeny Prigozhin, recently said he expected his mercenaries to surround Bakhmut by March-April, and “Chef Putin’s” pragmatic assessments of the Russian advance in the Bakhmut region were generally closer to tactical realities than those predicting a rapid Russian advance.

ISW believes that Ukrainian forces could at any time decide that the costs of holding Bakhmut are too great and voluntarily withdraw from the city, although Ukrainian leaders continue to indicate that they intend to maintain control of the city of Donetsk, the region , which Putin has. announced last year that he had annexed it along with three other Ukrainian territories.

The Kremlin may launch another series of missile strikes on civilian targets across Ukraine to mark the symbolic anniversary, as real military success continues to elude Russia’s frontline troops.

Is Russia calling for more air power?

On the other hand, ISW says that Russian forces are making more extensive use of air power in Ukraine, but are unlikely to commit significant amounts of air power to combat operations over Ukrainian-controlled territory.

NATO sources quoted by the Financial Times say Moscow is moving more fighter jets to the Russian-Ukrainian border to support the ground offensive.

A hypothesis that appears to be confirmed by an anonymous source from the Russian Ministry of Defense, quoted by the independent publication iStories, according to which the Russian army is changing its tactics and intends to use a large amount of air power in Ukraine. According to the source, Russia still has an indisputable superiority in aviation over the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

A source told the FT that Russia is preparing an air campaign that will involve about 80% of its military aircraft and will try to disable Ukraine’s air defenses.

“The ground forces of Russia are very exhausted, this is the main indicator that they will start using aviation,” said the FT interlocutor. According to him, Ukraine should get as much air defense and anti-missile defense as possible.

How many planes are left in Russia?

Britain’s Ministry of Defense believes Russian air missions have increased in the past week to levels last seen in the summer of 2022, but said Russian forces had not increased their air presence in Ukraine and said it was unlikely Russian forces would prepare for an expanded air campaign. campaign .

According to the Ministry of Defense of Great Britain, since the beginning of the war, Russia has lost 130 military aircraft in Ukraine. Meanwhile, in February 2023, Russia’s Ministry of Defense said it still had about 1,500 manned aircraft, British intelligence said.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said that Ukraine’s current air defense capabilities are insufficient to counter a new wave of airstrikes, but noted that there are no imminent signs of a massive Russian airstrike.

Russia probably lacks experienced pilots

Military analysts explained to “Important Stories” that Russia has enough planes, but most likely lacks experienced and qualified pilots.

Thus, Russian forces are likely to suffer unjustified aircraft losses if they commit aircraft to extended combat operations such as strategic bombing or air support, especially if Western powers provide Ukraine with adequate air defense capabilities.

Russia’s strategy regarding the attack on Bakhmut and Vugledar in the Donetsk region is aimed at delaying Ukraine’s counteroffensive, claims Andriy Yusov, spokesman for the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, writes The Kyiv Independent.

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