The Russian military seized the initiative on the battlefield for the first time since August 2022. Putin’s troops have launched a major offensive in the Luhansk region, but Ukrainian forces are preventing them from making significant progress, according to the latest analysis by analysts at the Institute for the Study of War.

The pace of Russian operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line in western Luhansk region has increased significantly over the past week, with Russian sources reporting that Moscow forces are attacking Ukrainian defense lines and making minor advances along the Kharkiv-Luhansk border, particularly in the north. – west of Svatovo, near Kupyansk and west of Kreminnaya.

The images confirmed by the geolocation of the battles confirmed the successes of the Russians in the area of ​​Dvorichny, northwest of Svatovo.

The commitment of significant parts of at least three major Russian divisions to offensive operations in this sector indicates that the Russian offensive has begun, even if Ukrainian forces are thus far preventing Russian forces from making significant gains.

According to experts, the involvement of significant parts of at least three large Russian divisions in offensive operations in this direction indicates that the Russian offensive has begun, even if until now Ukrainian forces have prevented the troops sent by Putin from achieving significant success.

ISV believes that the Russian offensive has not yet reached its maximum scope: the Russian command has not yet activated units of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division (1st Guards Tank Army of the Western Military District), which was deployed in January in the Luhansk region after hostilities. sent to Belarus.

Ukrainian troops may launch a counteroffensive

Although Russian forces in Luhansk Oblast currently hold the initiative, and Russian forces establish the terms of engagement, ending the Ukrainian initiative period in August 2022, Russia’s military capability may culminate at the Svatove-Kreminna line without achieving the objective. capture of the entire Luhansk and Donetsk regions, the stated goal of the Kremlin.

This climactic moment will likely create an opportunity for Ukrainian forces to use for their own counteroffensive, according to ISW analysts.

The command of the so-called militia of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic has reportedly seized control of a Russian artillery battalion, likely in an attempt to bolster depleted forces in Donetsk ahead of an imminent Russian offensive.

It is quite likely that the Russian Ministry of Defense will try to correct the low efficiency of the forces in Donbas by quickly integrating Russian personnel.

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