“Even if it snows and rains, the wild flower endures,” sang Stelios Kazantzidis in 1968, but maybe Pythagoras thought of this verse again when he read about the polar express, the polar river, the polar ball (!), the polar storm, white invasion, the onset of snow. True, of course, in recent days we have been worried not by the threat of snow, but by the “old age” that has come in the relations of meteorologists. The dichotomy and objections of experts as to whether and when the polar express will arrive in our country, due to successive conflicting posts on social media, have created an atmosphere of unease.

“There is a childhood disease of meteorologists who will be the first to report bad weather,” says Dimitris Ziakopoulos, director of forecasts for many years at EMY, a representative of the “school” of meteorologists, distinguished by seriousness, “K”. and moderation. “But this is not a sign of maturity and prudence. You need to be patient and, if the forecast is uncertain, do not transfer this uncertainty to the audience. They expect something definite from us, it means nothing to convey the dichotomy of models. The meteorologist must decide which model is more likely to be tested.” In this case, the European model and the American model “gave” different estimates of bad weather, with some meteorologists taking into account only one. If the forecast is not confirmed, the models are often blamed. Dimitris Ziakopoulos vs. “Models are tools. They are not perfect, but indispensable, otherwise we will return to Kazamias. We know they’re not perfect because we can’t perfectly mimic natural processes. These are useful tools, and we should neither deify them nor blame them for our own haste – or, to put it mildly, impatience.

In this case, the apple of Eris was a snowfall that affected the territory of the Northern Sporades, Eastern Thessaly, Evia and Attica. Some claimed that from Thursday to Friday there will be weather with snow even in the lowlands. Others spoke of “snow cover”, arguing that no snow would fall below Penteli, while others said that the storm would start from Sunday. “It took patience to get closer to a forecast with a higher chance of being confirmed.”

The truth is that even until last Thursday, the pattern dichotomy continued. “Some people were in a hurry to get predictive results ahead of time,” says meteorologist Yiannis Kallianos. “Half of the models say (as of Thursday) that most of Attica will be covered in snow, and the other half say light weather with rain, possibly sleet and snow only in the mountains. It appears that indeed from Sunday (February 5) the weather will become very erratic, wintry, with snow also penetrating Attica and affecting much of the prefecture. When there are questions about bad weather, it is not advisable to talk about strong phenomena 5-6 days before. The meteorologist must have moderation, especially if he has a public speaking.

“There is a childhood disease of meteorologists who will be the first to report bad weather.”

According to Mr. Kallianos, he often receives calls from the competent authorities. “People ask me: “Should we close Attiki Odos?”. “Should we close the river?” “Send snowplows to such and such a place?” Our position is delicate. I can’t go out and tell the world about the snowy Armageddons that will bury us in the snow. And I can’t see it until we’re absolutely sure. All three days the state manages to take its measures. And the goal is always to help citizens. Others wreak havoc every three or so times, fall three times out of ten, but that doesn’t stop them. By God, I don’t mean anyone in particular, it’s just that often websites misrepresent what meteorologists say and people draw the wrong conclusions.”

From the cyclone

Christina Sousi has been exposed to such “storms” several times, having learned to stay away from the eyes of the cyclone. “I am not involved in this,” says a well-known meteorologist. “I am doing my job, and when I see that there is a system that will affect the country, I will come out and say so. Certainly not ten days ago. Even today (Thursday) there is a dichotomy between the two global models. When even the models are wrong, why should I play God? I’m not ashamed to say I don’t know and to say I need two days’ supply to be sure.”

As he mentions, Western systems, Italian ones, are easier to predict. “North, if they go one degree to the right or one degree to the left, it makes a big difference. If they go to the right, for example, they went to Turkey, otherwise they will come to our country.” It is also how the expert communicates the news. “Yes, let me tell you that the weather will be wintery, but why should I say that there will be devastation? Too many professionals depend on the weather.”