Russia currently lacks the munitions and maneuverable units needed to launch a successful offensive, but is trying to achieve unrealistic targets due to political pressure from the Kremlin, Britain’s Ministry of Defense says.

Russian soldiersPhoto: Vitaly Ankov / Sputnik / Profimedia

What British experts say in Tuesday morning’s assessment:

  • It is likely that Russia is trying to resume major offensive operations in Ukraine from the first days of January 2023. Its operational goal is almost certainly to capture the rest of the Ukrainian-controlled parts of the Donetsk region.
  • Russian troops managed to gain only a few hundred meters of territory per week. This is almost certainly due to the fact that Russia currently lacks the ammunition and maneuverable units necessary for a successful offensive.
  • Senior commanders are likely to develop plans that require undermanned and inexperienced units to achieve unrealistic goals due to political and professional pressures.
  • Russian leaders are likely to continue to demand dramatic progress. It remains unlikely that Russia will be able to build up the forces necessary to significantly influence the outcome of the war in the coming weeks.

The Russians are collecting soldiers and weapons for the offensive in the east

As Reuters reports, Russia has sent reinforcements to eastern Ukraine ahead of a new offensive that could begin next week.

“We see more and more (Russian) reserves being deployed in our direction, we see more equipment being brought in…” said Serhii Gaidai, the Ukrainian governor of Luhansk Oblast, which is mostly occupied by Russia.

Desperate for Western military aid to arrive, Ukraine expects Russia to launch a major offensive for “symbolic” reasons around the February 24 anniversary of the invasion.

Ukraine, in turn, is planning a spring offensive to retake lost territory, but is awaiting the delivery of promised longer-range missiles and Western battle tanks, and some analysts say Ukraine will be ready to launch an offensive in a few months.

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