The days of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime are numbered. The winds of history are shifting, and everything from Ukraine’s military successes on the battlefield to the resilience of Western solidarity and resilience in the face of Putin’s aggression indicate that 2023 will be decisive, write Harry Kasparov and Mykhailo Khodorkovsky in Foreign Affairs.

If the West holds its own, Putin’s regime is likely to fall soon

But some of Ukraine’s partners still refuse to send Kyiv the weapons it needs to strike a decisive blow. The Biden administration in particular seems to fear the chaos that could accompany a decisive defeat for the Kremlin. It refused to send tanks, long-range missiles and drones, which would allow the Ukrainian military to transfer the battle to the aggressor’s territory, recapture its territory and end the war. The end of Putin’s tyrannical regime will indeed radically change Russia (and the rest of the world) — but not in the way the White House thinks. Rather than destabilizing Russia and its neighbors, a Ukrainian victory would remove a powerful countervailing force and advance democracy around the world.

Russian democrats who reject Putin’s totalitarian regime – the category to which the authors of this text belong – are doing everything possible to help Ukraine fully liberate the occupied territories and restore its territorial integrity in accordance with the borders recognized by the international community in 1991. We are also working on plans for the day after Putin. The Russian Action Committee, a coalition of opposition groups in exile that we founded in May 2022, seeks to obtain fair compensation for Ukraine for the damage caused by Putin’s aggression, prosecute all war criminals, and transform Russia from a criminal dictatorship to a parliamentary federal republic. In other words, the imminent end of the Putin regime should not inspire fear; this should be welcomed with open arms.

Groundless fears

Putin’s attempt to restore the lost Russian empire is doomed to failure. Therefore, now is a favorable moment for the transition to democracy and decentralization of power to the regional level. But a necessary condition for such a political transformation is Putin’s military defeat in Ukraine. A decisive defeat on the battlefield would destroy Putin’s aura of invincibility and expose him as the architect of a failed state, leaving his regime vulnerable to internal challenges.

The West, and especially the US, can provide the financial and military support necessary to hasten the inevitable and push Ukraine to a quick victory. But the Biden administration has yet to form a clear vision of how to end the war, and some US officials are suggesting that Ukraine consider ceding territory in exchange for peace — far from reassuring propositions. The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has already made it clear that the Ukrainian people will never agree to such an agreement. Any territorial concessions to Putin will inevitably lead to a new war sometime in the future.

At the heart of the US refusal to provide the necessary weapons is the fear of the potential consequences of a decisive defeat of Russia in Ukraine. Many in the Biden administration believe Putin’s refusal would trigger Russia’s collapse, wreaking havoc on the nuclear power and possibly strengthening China’s position.

The risk of Russia’s collapse is real. But this risk is greater with Putin at the head compared to a federal democratic regime

But such fears are exaggerated. The risk of Russia’s collapse is, of course, real. But this risk is greater with Putin at the helm, who is constantly pushing the country in the direction of centralization and militarization, compared to a federal, democratic regime. The longer the current regime remains in power, the greater the risk of an unpredictable rupture. Putin’s aggression exposed the instability inherent in his model of governance, built on the need to confront external enemies. The Kremlin mafia, having turned Russia into a military camp for the implementation of its war plans, has already threatened to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Therefore, Washington should fear not the collapse of Putin’s regime, but its survival.

For nearly two decades, some Western analysts have argued that the Russian people will never accept democracy and that Russia is doomed to remain a revenant. And it is true that Putin’s propaganda managed to persuade a significant part of Russian society to believe that Western values ​​are completely foreign to Russia. But economic integration with the West has allowed other countries to overcome their fascist legacy. And even deeper integration with Europe, combined with conditional easing of Western sanctions, could help Russia do the same.

After Putin’s military defeat, Russia will have a choice: either become a vassal of China or begin reintegration with Europe (after first properly reparing Ukraine for war damages and punishing those responsible for war crimes). For most Russians, the option of peace, freedom and prosperity would be obvious – and even more so in the context of the rapid reconstruction of Ukraine.

Hope over fear

Putin’s military defeat would catalyze political transformation in Russia, making it easier for democratic forces to dismantle the old regime and create a new political reality. The Russian Action Committee proposed a plan for this transformation aimed at restoring the Russian state “on the principles of the rule of law, federalism, parliamentarism, a clear separation of powers in the state, and promotion of human rights and freedoms.” at the expense of some “state interests” abstract”. Our vision is for Russia to become a parliamentary republic and a federal state with limited centralized powers (only those necessary for foreign and defense policy and civil liberties) and with much stronger regional administrations.

It takes time to get there. Within two years of the collapse of Putin’s regime, Russians would elect a constituent assembly that would adopt a new constitution and develop a new system of regional bodies. But in the short term, until the assembly is established, an interim state council with legislative powers will be needed to oversee the technocratic interim government. The core of the council will be Russians loyal to the rule of law, those who have publicly condemned Putin’s war and his illegitimate regime. Most were forced to leave, where we could freely organize and create a virtual civil society outside the country. This preparation will allow us to act quickly and cooperate with the Western countries whose cooperation the new Russian government needs to stabilize the economy.

Immediately after taking power, the State Council will conclude a peace agreement with Ukraine, recognizing the borders of 1991 and adequately compensating it for the losses it suffered as a result of Putin’s war. The Council of State also officially disavows the imperial policies of the Putin regime, both at home and abroad, including by ending all formal and informal support for Russophile organizations in the former Soviet republics. It will also end Russia’s old confrontation with the West, making the transition to a foreign policy based on peace, partnership and integration with Euro-Atlantic institutions.

Domestically, the Council will begin the demilitarization of Russia, the reduction of the armed forces and, as a result, the costs of their maintenance. He would dismantle the organs of Putin’s police state, including the repressive Federal Security Service and the Counter-Extremism Center, and repeal all repressive laws passed under Putin’s regime. All political prisoners will be released and fully rehabilitated, and a more general amnesty program will be adopted to reduce Russia’s prison population.

At the federal level, the Council will conduct a lustration, launching transparent and thorough investigations to disqualify officials of the current regime guilty of abuses. In addition, all parties and public organizations that supported the invasion of Ukraine will be liquidated, so as not to interfere with the construction of a new Russia. At the same time, the Rada will liberalize electoral legislation, simplify the procedure for party registration, and abolish Putin’s time limits for meetings, strikes, and demonstrations.

The Council will also begin decentralization of the country, transferring broad powers to the regions, including in the budgetary sphere. Such reforms will weaken Russia’s all-powerful imperial center: if the federal government does not have full control over public finances, it also lacks the means to launch military adventures.

Finally, the council will prosecute war criminals and dignitaries of Putin’s regime. Those responsible for the worst war crimes will be tried by an international court, and Russia will try the rest. To be able to do this, it is necessary to draw a clear distinction between war criminals and ordinary agents of the regime, offering the latter some form of compromise to ensure a smoother peaceful transition.

This is a defining moment for Ukraine. Biden can turn the tide in Kyiv’s favor by backing up his words of support by sending tanks and long-range weapons.

It could also hasten the downfall of the Putin regime, paving Russia’s path to a democratic future and demonstrating to the world that military aggression is madness. The US cannot allow its own fears to stand in the way of Ukraine’s hopes.

The material was made with the support of the Rador agency