The number of days with temperatures above 35 degrees Celsius in Greece in the summer will increase significantly until 2050, according to a study carried out by a group from the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki in the context of CLIMPACT – the National Network for Changing of the climate and its effects.

In particular, according to the study, by 2050 the number of days with temperatures above 35°C in summer in some regions may increase to 16 days.

At the heart of a study by a team from the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, which included AUTH professors T. Mavrommatis, D. Melas and P. Zani, and research fellows A. Georgoulias and D. Akritidis, in the context of CLIMPACT – National Climate Network Change and impact Change impact climate in the near (2021–2050) and distant (2071–2100) future for wheat, tomatoes, cotton, potatoes, vines, rice and olives. According to the study, until the end of the 21st century, unfavorable climatic indicators of temperature and precipitation will show a significant change in their seasonal frequency at critical periods for the development and production of the main crops of Greek agriculture.

More days with fever

At the same time, as the study shows, most days with elevated temperatures, as well as lack of water, will have a negative impact on the above crops, despite the reduction in frosty days. “Increased heat stress and water shortages are expected to have negative seasonal effects on these crops, in contrast to reduced frost days,” the study says, adding that the final outcome of positive and negative impacts on yields is still to be determined. uncertain.

In particular, based on the data of the study, analyzes were made of days with a maximum temperature of more than 30°C in spring and tropical nights (with a minimum temperature of more than 20°C) in spring and summer, both in the near and in the distant future. a real “slight increase” (except for the lowlands of Macedonia and Thessaly), which will reach 4 and 25 days/year for the first and second indicators, respectively. On the contrary, the corresponding forecasts for the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35 °C in summer show a significant increase (up to 16 days per year) (except for the mountainous areas in Pindos, Macedonia and the Peloponnese).

Conversely, a sharp reduction in the number of spring frost days is expected to benefit wheat, cotton, potatoes, tomatoes and vines in the near and far future, the study said.

Regarding the frequency of rainy days, the study notes that by 2050 the reduction in the frequency of days with more than 1 mm of precipitation will be insignificant in spring and summer (up to 4-5 days/year), but in remote areas in the future (until 2100) , is likely to increase to 8-9 days a year throughout Greece. Thus, “it is expected that increased water scarcity in spring will adversely affect wheat, potatoes and olives in summer, tomatoes and grapes in spring-summer, especially in the 2nd half of the 21st century, according to the scenario of the distant future,” the study emphasizes. .

“Approximately 40% of Greek land is devoted to agriculture, of which approximately 30% is irrigated. As a result, agriculture is an important sector of the Greek economy, which is nevertheless directly affected by weather and climate in different ways and will continue to do so in the future,” the AUTH researchers note in their study.

“However, at the same time, agriculture is a significant contributor to climate change through emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants (European Environment Agency 2019). The impact of climate change (and especially the combination of temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2) on the agricultural sector differs from region to region in Europe. Particularly in the Mediterranean region, higher temperatures and reduced rainfall will have a direct impact on crop yields and an indirect impact on water availability. Warmer temperatures will create more favorable conditions for the spread of weeds and pests, and reduced rainfall is expected to increase the likelihood of short-term crop failures and long-term production cuts,” the study emphasizes.

At the same time, as indicated, the region of southeastern Europe collects the highest temperatures, especially the Mediterranean region. According to the aforementioned study by the European Environment Agency (EEA), the main effects of climate change in the Mediterranean include, among others, an increase in the number of hot days, a decrease in rainfall, an increase in the frequency of droughts, a reduction in biodiversity, a shortage of water in crops and a decrease in crop yields.

It is noted that the analysis was based on a set of 11 high-resolution simulations of regional climate models performed as part of the European EURO-CORDEX campaign. They cover the historical period 1950-2005. and the future period 2006-2100. influenced by three GHG scenarios of strong, moderate mitigation and no mitigation.

Source: APE/MEB