The Kremlin is likely to seek “decisive action in the next six months” to regain the upper hand in Ukraine after a series of Russian military setbacks and successful Ukrainian counteroffensives, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War say.

Russia has failed to achieve most of its main objectives in Ukraine since the invasion began last February.

Russian troops failed to capture Kyiv in the first three days of the invasion, as well as Luhansk and Donetsk regions.

Since February, Ukrainian forces have liberated more than 50% of the territory occupied by Russia, including Kherson, the only regional capital that Russia managed to capture.

The Russian campaign against Ukraine’s critical infrastructure in the winter in an attempt to demoralize Ukrainians was also unsuccessful and in many ways contributed to greater support for Ukraine.

However, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kremlin officials reaffirmed that they have not abandoned their maximalist goals.

The decision of the Kremlin

According to ISW, while Putin has not changed his goals, there is emerging evidence that he is changing fundamental aspects of Russia’s approach to war, resorting to several new lines of effort.

American analysts have noted several Russian efforts that point to further aggression in Ukraine, including plans to expand the Russian military by forming new units and raising the conscription age.

The Kremlin’s decision to appoint General Valery Gerasimov, the former head of the Russian General Staff, as commander of Russian forces in Ukraine also shows that Putin is repolarizing control of the military effort, according to ISW.

The Kremlin is also trying to revive the defense industry and shape the Russian information space to restore support for the invasion, restoring narratives to February 24, taking steps to regain control of the war narrative.

However, the US think tank claims that Russia’s efforts to prepare for decisive strategic action in 2023 are not mutually exclusive with the Kremlin’s efforts to create the conditions for a protracted war.

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