A sudden exit from the “zero COVID-19” program could lead to nearly a million deaths, according to a new study, as China braces for an unprecedented wave of infections that will spread from major cities to vast rural areas, CNN reports.

For nearly three years, the Chinese government has resorted to strict quarantines, centralized quarantine, mass testing and thorough contact tracing to limit the spread of the virus. That expensive strategy was scrapped earlier this month after protests erupted across the country against the harsh restrictions that disrupted business and daily life. But experts warn that the country is ill-prepared for such a sharp exit because it is unable to increase vaccination rates among the elderly, increase intervention and intensive care capacity in hospitals and stockpile antiviral drugs.

Under current conditions, a nationwide reopening could cause up to 684 deaths per million people, according to projections by three professors from the University of Hong Kong. Given that China has a population of 1.4 billion people, this would mean 964,400 deaths.

The wave of infections “is likely to overwhelm many local health care systems across the country,” according to a research paper published last week on the Medrxiv preprints server and not yet peer-reviewed. At the same time, according to the study, the lifting of restrictions in all provinces will lead to an increase in requests for hospitalization 1.5 to 2.5 times more than the capacity of leading hospitals. But this worst-case scenario could be avoided if China quickly distributes booster vaccines and antiviral drugs.

According to a study partially funded by the Chinese Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), with 85% coverage for the fourth dose of the vaccine and 60% antiviral drug coverage, deaths could be reduced by 26-35%. and the Hong Kong government. (source: news.ro / photo source: DreamsTime / Imtmphoto)