Exiled Belarusian opposition leader Svitlana Tikhanovskaya has warned that the risks of Minsk sending troops to Ukraine “may increase in the coming weeks” as fears grow in Kyiv that Moscow is pressuring its close ally to join a new ground offensive against Ukraine , The Guardian reports.

Svitlana Tikhanovskaya’s remarks were made during Vladimir Putin’s visit to Belarus for talks with Alexander Lukashenko. According to the Belarusian president, the “military-political situation” in the region, as well as economic cooperation, will be discussed at the meeting.

Ukraine will closely monitor the negotiations. Last week, several Ukrainian military leaders said that Russia may attempt another major offensive in northern Ukraine. Volodymyr Zelenskyi said on Sunday that Ukraine is ready for “all possible defense scenarios” from Moscow and its ally.

Kyiv has “the right to prepare” for Minsk joining Moscow’s new offensive, as the probability “may increase in the coming weeks,” Tikhanovska said in an interview with the Kyiv Post.

“The armed forces of Belarus are part of society and have the same vision of war – 86% of Belarusians are against participation in the war. This stopped the order to send Belarusian troops to the battlefield in Ukraine. (…). However, the probability of such an order remains and may increase in the coming weeks. I believe that the Ukrainian leadership is right to prepare for such a scenario, even if it means diverting significant forces from active combat zones in the southeast,” Tikhanovska said.

Lukashenko “sees Ukraine as a threat,” she said, adding that “democratic, free and European Ukraine is a bad example for the Lukashenko and Putin dictatorships, so this war is a logical solution for them.”

When asked what the common goal of Russia and Belarus might be, she answered:

“Destroy Ukraine, its European aspirations and national identity and bring it under its control.”

The scenario of a new invasion from Belarus is hotly debated

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in an assessment on Friday that Russian forces would likely create the conditions for an attack from Belarus into Ukraine, but stressed that an invasion by Vladimir Putin’s forces from Belarus was not imminent at this point.

Russia’s military presence in Belarus has increased since the fall of 2022. Several official Ukrainian and independent Belarusian sources have reported an increase in the Russian military presence in Belarus from October 2022.

Ukrainian General Oleksiy Gromov said on Thursday that during the week of December 4-11, Russia transferred one battalion of tanks to the Obuz-Lesnovsky training ground in Brest and one battalion of tanks to the Losivdo training ground in Vitebsk.

In October, a high-ranking representative of Ukrainian intelligence said that Russia had already sent about 3,200 troops to Belarus. These numbers alone are not enough to support an invasion of Ukraine, but they may indicate an attempt to re-establish a large Russian force in Belarus.

High-ranking Ukrainian officials are increasingly warning that Russian troops may try to attack Kyiv ​The head of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valery Zaluzhnyi, is considering an offensive from Belarus.

In January, but most likely in the spring, the Russian Federation may launch a major offensive from Donbas in the east, from the south, or even from Belarus.

Although Zaluzhnyi believes that an attack from Belarus is possible, Gromov says that the probability of such an attack from Russia “remains low.”

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Tuesday that Russia may be preparing for a large-scale offensive in January and February 2023.

What were the talks between Putin and Lukashenka in Minsk so far?

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Oleksandr Lukashenko avoided mentioning Ukraine in their public statements on Monday at the Minsk summit, CNN reports.

Putin has said that Belarus is Russia’s closest ally and that he expects to reach a record $40 billion in trade between the two countries.

Lukashenko said that Russia and Belarus will find answers to all threats; and expressed hope that the West would “listen to the voice of reason” to resume security dialogue.

Putin said that Moscow is ready to continue helping Minsk in the development of the nuclear industry, reports The Guardian with reference to TASS.

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