Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehhammer’s (ÖVP) refusal in early December to allow Romania and Bulgaria to join the Schengen area is based mainly on figures from the Austrian Ministry of the Interior: 100,000 “illegal border crossings” in Austria this year, of which 75,000 are not registered anywhere else EU country. Here, however, a political scientist from Austria, as well as an expert on migration, relativizes the officially presented figures.

The figures cited by Nehhammer should point to Romania and Bulgaria as important migration routes and thus justify Austria’s actions in immediately denying the two countries access to the Schengen area. Romania recently accused Austria of operating with incorrect figures.

The numbers given by Nehammer are irrelevant

Vienna.at, with sources from APA (Austrian Press Agency), conducts a “fact check” (Faktencheck). According to the publication, which also argues the opinions of two experts, “the data are not significant. Current Frontex reports contradict this.”

“The Federal Chancellor has sent, among other things, data from the Ministry of the Interior to the APA, which at first sight appears as if Bulgaria and Romania are in fact relevant migration routes to Austria. Excerpt: 40% of the migrants arrived in Belgrade by plane and then reached Austria with smugglers via Serbia and Hungary or via Serbia, Romania and Hungary. Another 40% would arrive by land transport from Turkey, through Greece or Bulgaria, to Serbia or Romania, and then to Hungary and Austria.”

“78% of Afghans and two-thirds of Moroccans also called Bulgaria the ‘first country in the EU.’ 50% of Bangladeshis said they had traveled to Romania. This is evidenced by interrogations of migrants and smugglers, as well as geographic data from more than 400 mobile phones,” said the Austrian Ministry of the Interior, quoted by Vienna.at.

Daniela Pishoyu, a political scientist at the Austrian Institute of International Affairs, believes that such data do not make sense as statistics of migration routes: “This information can be useful as an indicator in certain procedures, in the context of certain personal studies, but it is not a systematic collection of information about migration routes and therefore should not be presented as such.”

According to Pisoiu, even the sample size of 400 mobile phones evaluated “definitely” does not make sense. “Of course, in surveys, for example, small samples are taken, but they are selected according to a certain methodology. This is a so-called random sample,” she explained.

Romania and major migration routes

And migration researcher Judith Kohlenberger from the Vienna University of Economics and Business criticizes the small sample size in an interview given to APA, reports Vienna.at.

“In a truly voluntary situation, like in science, the survey can be stopped at any time,” Kohlenberger explains. “However, in a pressure situation, it may happen that respondents say something just to end an uncomfortable situation. In academia, refugees must always be assured that their response will not affect their asylum status.’

In addition, the BMI data contradicts two recent reports by the EU border agency Frontex. In this, the authorities conclude that the Western Balkan route is still the most active. According to a report of 12 December 2022, almost half of all illegal arrivals to the EU continued to follow this route.

Kohlenberger says the Western Balkans includes, “by common definition,” Serbia, Bosnia, Montenegro, Kosovo, Albania, and North Macedonia. According to Frontex, the second most active migration route to the EU is the central Mediterranean. It is noted that “Bulgaria or Romania do not appear there.”

The researcher also mentions the 2021 Situation Report on Smuggling and Human Trafficking, which “also points to the Eastern Mediterranean Route/Western Balkan Route, Western and Central Mediterranean routes as relevant smuggling routes for Austria. Only one of the three land routes would pass through Bulgaria and Romania.”

We remind you that Romania, which has been waiting for 11 years to join Schengen, has not entered the European free movement zone this time. On December 8, Austria managed to block a positive decision in the Council of the CIS, as unanimity is required for entry into Schengen. It was joined by the Netherlands on the condition that they oppose the accession of Bulgaria, and the vote was cast “together with Romania”.

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• Klaus Iohannis on Schengen accession: We are not on the verge of a diplomatic crisis / The President wants full accession in 2023, but he has not received any guarantees