In late November, Uzbekistan and its former Soviet neighbor Kazakhstan began discussing the possibility of a “natural gas union,” Al Jazeera reported.

In some parts of Uzbekistan, gas supplies have been unstable, leading to recent popular protests.

Despite a population of less than 20 million, Kazakhstan is the ninth largest nation in the world by area; it is slightly smaller than Argentina. Its northern regions are close to Russia and can be easily supplied by its pipeline networks.

The alliance could help the largest ex-Soviet economies in Central Asia coordinate exports and supplies of gas to domestic consumers.

It could also pave the way for closer integration — economic, political and defense — according to the plan released on Nov. 27.

Protection is especially important after the invasion of Ukraine and the veiled threats that have recently been coming to Kazakhstan from public figures in Russia.

But the Kremlin immediately decided to intervene.

Central Asia keeps Russia at bay

The day after the publication of the “union” project, Russian President Vladimir Putin told his Kazakh counterpart Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev that Moscow should be part of a “natural gas union” that could develop mechanisms for transporting natural gas between the three countries – and China.

Analysts say Moscow is desperate to nip at the root any form of integration in the strategic region of more than 60 million people that borders China, Afghanistan, Iran and Russia that does not directly concern the Kremlin.

“It is not difficult to guess that Putin’s initiative was a response to the news that Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are creating an alliance that could become the basis for the sovereign integration of Central Asia, especially in terms of defense,” Alisher Ilkhamov told Al Jazeera. , head of the Central Asia Due Diligence think tank based in London.

“This did not suit the Kremlin,” he said.

But Uzbekistan sent Putin a clear message about his country’s independence, another sign that Central Asia is keeping Russia at bay.

“We will never compromise with our national interests,” Energy Minister Zhurabek Mirzamakhmudov told the Uzbek newspaper Kun.uz on December 7.

“We will not allow any political conditions to be imposed in exchange” for joining the “gas union” with Russia and Kazakhstan, he said

What is Uzbekistan afraid of?

Moscow often intervened in the affairs of Central Asia.

In 1994, the first president of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev, came up with the idea of ​​the “Eurasian Union of Nations”, which was supposed to strengthen economic ties between his country, Russia and Belarus.

Moscow joined enthusiastically, fearing competition from the EU and the US, which in the 1990s invested billions in developing Kazakhstan’s untapped oil and gas fields on the Caspian Plateau.

Russia subsequently took over leadership of the Eurasian Union, turning the free trade bloc into an alliance dominated by Moscow, Al Jazeera reported.