Disconnecting the Union from Russian gas costs more than 200 billion euros. This money is directed in several directions.

Alternative energy paths and interconnection is a possible way

The United States anticipated the outbreak of conflict between the Russian Federation and Ukraine and predicted an economic/energy crisis caused by the conflict. Thus, even before February 24, 2022, American officials began to look for alternative solutions before those who make decisions in the European Union.

The simplest way of alternative gas supply was to change the delivery routes of liquefied natural gas (LNG). The search began at the end of 2021 and was aimed at the countries of the Persian Gulf, in particular Qatar. Although the United States is not among the largest producers of LNG, it has also been seen as an exporter to Europe. For this action, there had to be liquefaction terminals that would be connected to the European gas transport system. Their construction has started. As early as 2020, even the supply of fuel through “military pipelines” to serve Greece, Bulgaria and Romania began to be discussed.

As I have shown, the emphasis was on alternative routes coming from the west of the Scandinavian Peninsula and from Greece and Turkey. Thus, with the commissioning of the new Greece-Bulgaria interconnector, the throughput capacity of Europe through the south has increased.

Greece has two LNG terminals: Revitussa (5.2 million cubic meters per year) and Alexandropoulis (5.5 million cubic meters per year). They are connected to the Greek gas transport system DESPA. The first was intended to supply Greece, the second to supply Greece, Bulgaria and Romania, but Romania withdrew from the project in 2021.

Greece annually consumes a little more than 3 million cubic meters. So is Bulgaria.

There are two connections between Greece and Bulgaria at Kulata (1mcf/y) and Makaz (3mcf/y) commissioned this year, with the possibility of increasing the flow in a few years to 5 million cubic cubic meters/year

Thus, in the south-east, Europe has supply opportunities only from LNG terminals for 4 billion cubic meters per year. Added to them is the Turkey-Bulgaria Interconnector (BRUA), through which gas arrives from Azerbaijan via TANAP. Annual capacity of 3 million cubic meters. Turkey suspects that Russian gas, which is transported by Turkish Stream, may indeed come through this pipeline.

In total, a maximum of 7 million cubic meters per year can be transported to Bulgaria. There is a connection with Romania through two points connected to BRUA (1.75 million cubic meters per year) and Negro-Voda (6 million cubic meters per year).

For Southeast Europe, it is clear that all this transport and liquefied capacity is not enough, and because of this, all countries in the region are short of gas, especially since Romania, the only country in the region with reserves, has cut gas volumes. production, and no measures were taken to extract gas from the Black Sea or from deposits on land. The South Eastern Europe routes are also supposed to supply electricity to the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine, which are not EU members.

Bulgaria and Turkey can also extract gas from the Black Sea, from the same bag. Turkey has started construction of wells and pipelines to deliver gas to the shore. This means that Bulgaria and Romania will produce less gas because they are located in neighboring fields and will migrate to whoever produces them first.

All the while, there were renewed discussions about reviving AGRI, an alternative gas supply route from Azerbaijan through Georgia, where a liquefaction terminal could be built, from where the gas could be exported via the Black Sea and liquefied in Constanta. transported to consumers in Romania or in the region.

Also to the south, Spain and France want to connect their gas transmission systems in a bold but risky project.

Also in the south-eastern part, a 3000 MVA Greece-Bulgaria power system integration on a 400 V line is also expected, but this project will take many years to be put into operation.

Northern Europe is also not ready for unloading and liquefaction of NLG, and because of this, transport tankers have been waiting quite a long time for unloading. Germany seeks to build the first specialized terminal. It is obvious that the European Atlantic coast is in the same situation.

Efforts are being made to phase out supplies, with even Mozambique commissioning a terminal to liquefy and load specialized tanks.

Refusal of Russian gas means that the described alternative routes should provide almost 170 million cubic meters of gas, which is in short supply. What does it mean?

Obviously, new pipelines cannot be built overnight, so these billions of cubic meters of gas must be brought in by specialized tankers.

The average tank has a capacity of 175,000 cubic meters of liquefied gas. By rarefaction, they turn into 100,000,000 microns. Thus, to cover the shortage of Russian gas, 1,700 LNG tanks per year need to be unloaded on the coast of Europe, that is, about 5 tanks per day. It follows that a larger fleet of approximately 150 such vessels would be required. Such a ship costs approximately 200,000,000 euros, so about 30 billion euros will be just the ships. To these costs must be added the construction of new facilities for liquefaction and loading of tanks, as well as many other facilities for liquefaction and pumping in gas transportation systems. If we were talking at the level of the Union, then the sums are not large.

The problem is that gas that was transported in a liquefied state is 100% more expensive than gas that was transported through pipelines.

Yes, European gas prices skyrocketed after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Since some time, they started to fall to the real price of LNG.

Sanctions and regulation are a semi-failure

Since 2014, after the occupation of Crimea, the Russian Federation has faced several economic sanctions. After February 24, 2022, they multiplied.

The Russian Federation wasted no time and adapted to the sanctions. This boosted LNG supplies: Europe imported 41% more Russian LNG than in 2021. But not only gas left Russia, but also oil, by-products and coal.

Russia’s revenues increased, although volumes decreased significantly. With each wave of sanctions, energy carriers as a commodity are traded on national or community markets, as is usually the case, prices rise, and Russia’s income from the sale of energy raw materials also increases.

Without completely stopping imports from the Russian Federation, it actually earns more. Exports increased, in particular, to the main importers China and India. Thus, it is shown that the sanctions policy had the opposite effect.

In general, there are countries that have made exceptions to the sanctions against Russia. Holland is the best example, as exemptions have been granted for many Russian companies. Read the whole article and comment on Contributors.ro