Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose troops invaded Ukraine on February 24, has decided not to go to the G20 summit that begins Tuesday in Bali, Indonesia, likely to avoid a repeat of the experience eight years ago when, after the annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula in 2014, he attended the G20 meeting in Brisbane (Australia), where he became the object of numerous critics, as a result he went home before the end of the summit, writes AFP.

“We have to meet and take pictures at the summit. Or who was he supposed to talk to and take pictures with?’ — asks Russian political scientist Oleksiy Malashenko rhetorically, “not at all surprised” by such a decision.

“What could Putin say?”

By deciding not to go to Indonesia, the Russian president spares himself the humiliation of a cold reception, but risks further isolating his country, which is already subject to tough Western sanctions, AFP reports, citing Agerpres. But with or without Putin in Bali, Russia’s offensive against Ukraine will dominate the G20 agenda: a conflict that has been heavily criticized by Western countries and has caused or exacerbated many global crises, especially economic and climate.

“This will be the main topic,” emphasizes Fedir Lukyanov, a political scientist close to Moscow’s ruling circles. But “what could he (Putin) say? His position is known, it hasn’t changed, neither has the other camp. What would be the point?” he told AFP.

The Kremlin justified this absence with “orderly” reasons that kept Vladimir Putin in Russia, without specifying exactly what commitments would prevent him from taking part in one of the most important world summits. According to the Kremlin, Putin will not speak at the summit even via video conference, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi, whose country is not yet a member of the G20, has two speeches scheduled, but via video conference.

However, Moscow will send a delegation to Bali led by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who left the G20 summit in July prematurely after a wave of criticism from several of his colleagues.

“Feeling hopeless”

But Putin’s absence reflects the “sense of deadlock” that reigns among the actors of the conflict in Ukraine, “starting with the Russian leaders”, assesses the independent Russian political scientist Konstantin Kalachov. In fact, almost nine months after the beginning of the Russian offensive, there are no negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow.

In any case, this seems like a particularly bad time for Russia to start negotiations, given that it is piling up military setbacks despite mobilizing hundreds of thousands of reservists this fall, the French news agency commented.

Backed into a corner by a Ukrainian counteroffensive, the Russian army announced last week that it was withdrawing from the city of Kherson, the only regional capital it has captured since it began its assault in February. By September, the Russians had already retreated chaotically from the Kharkov region (northeast).

More and more isolated

Alienated by the West, Putin prefers ties with those who have historical ties to Russia or who share his dislike of the US, rather than discussions in international bodies where Moscow is increasingly isolated.

“In Putin’s opinion, the rejection of the G20 does not mean that it will prevent Russia from developing relations with neutral countries. Putin has been very active in recent months, he is trying to build an anti-American world, an anti-Western coalition,” says Tetyana Stanova, who heads the analytical center “R .Policy”.

But will these efforts bear fruit, given that even Moscow’s traditional allies are concerned about its offensive on Ukraine and the consequences for the global economy and food security?

The leaders of China and India, two countries with close ties to Russia, have publicly rebuked Putin, AFP noted.

During the summit in Kazakhstan in mid-October, the Russian president himself admitted that the countries of the post-Soviet space were “concerned” about the attack on Ukraine.

Therefore, Putin’s absence at the G20 shows that Moscow “no longer fully participates in those processes that are under the attention of the main international leaders”, according to political scientist Konstantin Kalachov. Apart from the conflict in Ukraine, Russia is “disconnected” from discussions on other important topics in the international situation, he also says.