The withdrawal of the Russian armed forces from the western bank of the Dnieper and the abandonment of strategic Kherson will have a number of consequences both for the situation at the front and for the war of aggression unleashed by Putin as a whole, notes Gen. Mick Ryan.

In a new analysis published on his page by the author Twitter he notes, first of all, that the withdrawal ordered by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on Wednesday looks real, given that officials in Kyiv said last week that Russia may be setting a trap here.

In fact, in Ukraine’s first reaction to the statement of the military command in Moscow, presidential adviser Mykhailo Podoliak said that it was “too early” to talk about the withdrawal of Russian troops from the regional capital and that this would only be confirmed when the Ukrainian flag flies over Kherson again.

“[Retragerea] seems good It is very difficult to maintain the Russian position in Kherson. The Ukrainians fought hard, carried out long-range strikes and psychological operations to make the positions of the Russians on the western bank of the Dnieper untenable,” says the Australian general.

It is also noted that the Ukrainians will probably harass the retreating Russian troops wherever possible.

Refusal of Kherson ends Russian plans for Odesa

As for Ukraine’s next steps, it is unlikely that Kyiv will try to cross the Dnipro on a large scale in the near future. Such an offensive would require not only a large-scale operation, but would also mean an attack on dense Russian positions.

“Therefore, the Ukrainians, who favor indirect attacks and erode the logistics and command system of Russian forces, will look for other opportunities in other areas to push the Russians out of the south,” says Mick Ryan.

According to the Australian officer, this will mean continued depth strikes. The recapture of Kherson will expand the areas where systems such as HIMARS can strike in support of future offensives.

Second, the abandonment of Kherson, the only regional capital in Ukraine that the Russians managed to capture after the start of the war on February 24, ends any plans by Moscow to capture the strategic port of Odesa.

The liberation of Kherson is also important for any future campaign by Kyiv to retake Crimea.

Vladimir Putin is preparing scapegoats for the Russian public

“Third observation: although this announcement was made by the armed forces, the concession of territory is political. This could not have happened without Putin’s approval,” emphasizes Mick Ryan.

We will also remind that the journalists of the Russian investigative website Meduza noted on Tuesday, citing several sources close to the Kremlin, that the decision to abandon Kherson will be made by Putin personally in consultation with his inner circle, which in recent months has come to consist almost exclusively of high-ranking officials security services.

Mick Ryan says the decision to withdraw shows that Putin can still face reality and make rational decisions. “But it also shows that he is preparing the armed forces to become scapegoats for the disaster in Ukraine,” he says.

Fourth, the pace and organization of any Russian withdrawal – given that it must be a targeted operation – will tell us a lot about the morale and capabilities of the Russian armed forces in southern Ukraine.

“Executing an orderly tactical withdrawal is a very difficult task even under the best of circumstances. And given that the Russians managed to prepare this retreat, they may not leave as much ammunition and equipment as in Kharkiv,” Ryan explains.

The Russian military may intensify attacks on civilians in Ukraine

The fifth problem concerns the fact that the Russians may accompany this withdrawal by escalating strategic attacks on other territories of Ukraine. In this regard, Mick Ryan reminds us that although the Russians’ own arsenal of long-range weapons has been significantly reduced, they are trying to get more equipment from Iran.

“From the Russian point of view, these strikes will continue the “energy war” against Ukraine and provide strategic communication material to distract the Russian public from withdrawing from Kherson and losing territory. This is important for Putin. Having told the Russians in his annexation declaration that Kherson Oblast is now part of Russia, Putin will need a story to justify his exit and distract the public from it,” says Ryan.

Sixth, with less territory to defend and a wave of recruits arriving at the front, General Sergei Surovkin, commander of the invasion force, can begin rebuilding his troops, badly damaged by months of war.

The exact locations of the withdrawn troops will also provide information about their combat capability, as well as about Surovkin’s priorities for this winter and early next year. This Russian build-up, if successful, could prolong the war.

The exit from Kherson testifies to the success of the Ukrainian military strategy

“Seventh: this (non-withdrawal from Kherson) is a confirmation of the military strategy of Ukraine and the approach of the country’s leadership. They are successful, and the Russians know it. It will also boost Ukraine’s morale during the winter months,” says Mick Ryan.

And last but not least, the Australian general emphasizes that now is not the time when Ukrainians are being forced to negotiate with Russia.

“Even if the Russians are weakened, they do not give up their territorial aspirations. They will have to be beaten on the battlefield and expelled from Ukraine,” he says.

His comments take place in the context of the fact that in recent days, several Western publications wrote that the administration of American President Joe Biden asked the leadership in Kyiv to be open to the idea of ​​negotiations with Russia.

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