The Crimean Bridge will not return to work before the October 8 attack until next fall, the British Ministry of Defense says in the assessment from Wednesday morning.

What the British Secret Service says:

• Russia’s efforts to repair the Crimean bridge are ongoing, but it is unlikely to be fully operational until at least September 2023.
• On November 8, the road bridge was to be closed to move and install a replacement section 64 meters long. Three more slabs will be needed to replace the damaged sections of the road.
• Although Crimean officials said the signs would be installed by December 20, a briefing by President Putin indicated that work on the other roadway would disrupt traffic until March 2023.
• The replacement of the damaged railway bridge is planned to be completed by September 2023, although the Russian Deputy Prime Minister said that the repair period will be accelerated.
• Only one line is operating, but rail traffic remains limited.
• Repair work will be highly dependent on weather conditions during the winter months.
• The attack on the Crimean bridge disrupted Russian logistics for Crimea and southern Ukraine, reducing Russia’s ability to transport military equipment and troops to the area by rail or road.
• The damage to the bridge, the recent attack on the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, and the likely retreat from Kherson complicate the Russian government’s ability to present a picture of military success.

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