General Mick Ryan explains in a new analyze what options do Russian President Vladimir Putin and the military command in Moscow have for 2023 in the context of the defeats suffered in recent months on the fronts in Ukraine, as well as the vulnerability of Ukrainians.

Ryan, a graduate of Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies and the US Marine Corps Command and Staff College, begins by noting that since the beginning of this war, Ukrainian resistance and the successes of Kyiv’s armed forces on the battlefield have forced Russia to constantly adapt its strategy.

“The war did not go nearly as well as the Russians expected,” the Australian general notes, noting that Moscow is forced to constantly revise its “theory of victory.”

Currently, Russia’s strategy consists of several elements.

The first pillar of Russia’s strategy is propaganda fed to its own citizens that the “special military operation” launched by Putin on February 24 is a war of resistance to NATO aggression. A subordinate element of this is the ridiculous theory that Ukraine is ruled by the Nazis.

“These narrative threads are important to support the war (and Putin) in Russia, as well as between certain countries. The ‘NATO aggression’ narrative is working well in some parts of the world, particularly in the Middle East, South Asia and China,” explains Mick Ryan.

Russia will hope that the mobilization will lead to a revival of its forces

The second element is the strategic energy war he is waging against the West, and Putin still hopes he can use the cold winter and high energy prices to sway public opinion in the West and force Europe to intervene, leading to a truce. fire, which would only benefit Russia.

“While Putin is happy to continue the war, continuing to terrorize and kill Ukrainian civilians in the hope that the West will tire of the war,” says a retired Australian officer.

The third element of the Russian strategy concerns its strategic “bombing”. At the beginning of the war, they focused on Ukrainian cities and civilians. The Russian military still does this, but has also moved to attack Ukraine’s drinking water sources and energy infrastructure.

The fourth pillar of Moscow’s strategy is related to mobilization, which Vladimir Putin approved on September 21. It is aimed at replacing lost troops and rebuilding the army for future offensive operations. Mobilization also has an industrial component aimed at replacing lost equipment and improving military production.

The fifth and final element of the Russian strategy is the preservation of the territories occupied by Moscow’s armed forces, which was underlined by their formal annexation at the end of September.

Russian troops can strike at the air defense of Ukraine

With this strategic context in mind, Mick Ryan explains the options for Sergei Surovkin, the Russian general appointed on October 8 as supreme commander of the invasion force, for the next year.

The first element of the Russian campaign in 2023 is likely to be a continuation of strategic strikes, which may be expanded to include more precision strikes on military targets such as logistical infrastructure and training facilities of Ukrainian forces.

But Moscow will also continue to try to prevent foreign investment in Ukraine. As part of this bombing campaign, we could also see some attempts to suppress Ukraine’s air defenses in the context of an increasing number of Western systems entering the country under the leadership of President Volodymyr Zelenskyi.

“Ukraine’s increasingly effective air shield poses a threat to Russia’s strategic goals,” the Australian general emphasizes.

Protection of Ukrainian territories is the main goal of Vladimir Putin

The second part of the campaign of the Moscow military command in 2023 will concern the security of the conquered Ukrainian territories, which Russia allegedly annexed. This is the main political and strategic goal. Russia will probably try to expand its conquests in these regions, as well as eliminate the activities of Ukrainian guerrillas.

The third component of the Russian strategy will be aimed at the “Russification” of the Ukrainian territories controlled by Moscow. This has already been seen in places like Kherson, which is a way for Putin to legitimize his invasion.

Russian forces are also likely to try to pin down Ukrainian forces in certain areas so that they cannot be used in an offensive from the east or south. An example of this is the introduction of new Russian troops in Belarus.

Last but not least, the Russian campaign may seek to improve the effectiveness of its forces on the battlefield and in the skies above Ukraine by improving logistics and integration between ground and air forces, as well as operational security.

Variants of war between Ukraine and the West

“First of all, in the medium term, there is a need for continued support from the West – equipment, training, financial and humanitarian aid. This is a large-scale industrial war. Ukraine needs time, resources and strategic patience in the West to win,” says Mick Ryan.

“War fatigue” of the West is the greatest vulnerability and greatest danger for Ukraine.

Secondly, Kyiv will need more anti-air and anti-missile defense systems, as well as against drone attacks. It is clear that with the support of Iran, Russia will continue its strategic strikes on Ukraine.

The Ukrainians will also have to continue their “strategy of eroding” Russian logistics, as well as the morale of Putin’s troops. But they will have to adapt to Moscow’s change in strategy, which is a must if they want to win the war.

In this sense, in addition to continued military support, the arms industry of Western countries will have to increase production rates to be able to produce armor, ammunition and missiles more quickly.

“Ultimately, Ukraine’s strategic influence campaign remains critical. This is an important component for political support and public opinion in the West,” the Australian general emphasizes.

“The war will not stop this winter. But he will fight at a different pace. This will give political and military leaders an opportunity to plan for the coming year,” concludes Mick Ryan.

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