The departure of Russians from the western Kherson region has begun, according to the latest assessment of the Institute for the Study of War (IWV). Russian forces likely intend to continue this withdrawal over the next few weeks, but may have difficulty withdrawing in an orderly manner if Ukrainian forces decide to attack.

The Southern Operational Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported on Friday that Russian troops are “quite actively” transferring ammunition, military equipment and some units from the west bank of the Dnieper to the east by ferries.

The Ukrainian military added that Russian troops have withdrawn 2,000 newly mobilized troops to hold the front line and continue shelling Ukrainian positions, possibly trying to cover their withdrawal.

The Ukrainian military reported that the Russian occupation administration is preparing to evacuate specialists imported from Russia, Ukrainian collaborators and the banking system of Kherson.

It is also reported that the Russian occupation administration in Berislav and humanitarian facilities in the city of Kherson have stopped working.

The Russians must leave a squad of professionals ready to die

The Russian withdrawal from western Kherson requires a Russian detachment to be kept on the contact line to protect it from Ukrainian attacks in order to protect Russian forces during their withdrawal.

Such a unit must be well-trained, professional, and willing to die for their countrymen in order to accomplish this task effectively.

Brigadier General Oleksiy Gromov, the deputy chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, estimated on Thursday that the Russian military leadership can withdraw “the most combat-capable units” from the left side of the region to the right bank of the Dnieper and leave mobilized soldiers to cover the retreat.

Russian military bloggers claim that the information that elite units of the Airborne Forces and Marines are being replaced by untrained conscripts in Kherson is false.

If Khromov’s assessment is correct, then the Russian troops created the conditions for the withdrawal of the Russians to turn into a rout.

There may be a new Ukrainian offensive, as in Kharkiv

Russia’s newly mobilized and poorly trained reservists are unlikely to withstand a Ukrainian counterattack if Ukrainian forces decide to attack and harass the retreating forces.

The collapse of the unit of mobilized reservists, which remained in contact, will probably lead to a Ukrainian descent of the same scale as the offensive against Russian troops in Kharkiv.

Russian officials do not want to say whether Vladimir Putin has given the order to withdraw from Kherson, and probably continues to prepare the information space for such a collapse, as ISV previously estimated.

Kremlin spokesman Dmytro Peskov on Friday avoided a direct question from journalists about the possible withdrawal of troops and asked the media to request information from the Ministry of Defense.

A Russian military blogger said on Friday that next week Russian forces “will receive bad news from the Kherson region” and that “November will be very, very difficult.”

Probably, Putin’s troops will try to blow up the Kakhovskaya Dam

Russian troops will probably try to blow up the dam at the Kakhovskaya HPP to cover their retreat and prevent Ukrainian forces from pursuing Russian forces deep into the Kherson region.

Russian forces will almost certainly blame Ukraine for attacking the dam, as ISW previously estimated.

Ukraine has no material interest in blowing up the dam, which could flood 80 Ukrainian cities and displace hundreds of thousands of people, affecting Ukraine’s already scarce electricity supply.

However, Russia has every reason to try to cover its retreating forces and widen the Dnipro, which Ukrainian forces will need to cross to continue the counteroffensive.

Moscow needs a buffer zone to protect Crimea

Any claims that Russian forces will not blow up the dam because of concerns about Crimea’s water supply are absurd.

Crimea survived without access to the canal, which flows from the Dnieper, since Russia invaded and illegally annexed it in 2014, until the canal was reopened after the Russian invasion in February 2022.

Russian officials have demonstrated the ability to endlessly supply Crimea with water without access to the canal.

Russian forces will try to control the eastern Kherson region not through water, but rather to provide a buffer zone that will protect Crimea and prevent Ukrainian forces from having the peninsula within artillery range.

Russian politicians may believe that blowing up the dam will allow them to preserve this buffer zone.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi warned on Friday that a dam blowup could cut off water supplies to much of southern Ukraine and pose a serious threat to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is located upstream of the dam. The ZNPP uses water from the Kakhovsky Reservoir to cool its facilities.