Russian President Vladimir Putin has created several traps for himself with his decisions, which have become increasingly apparent since the missile strike he ordered against Ukraine early last week, historian Mark Galeotti explains in an editorial published by The Times.

Galeotti notes that the missile attacks were intended to reaffirm Putin’s tough image to Russians, and especially to “hawks” in his own administration, who are increasingly unhappy with the development of the “special military operation” that the Kremlin leader is conducting. ordered
-answer-attacks-anti-tank-missiles.htm”> February 24.

But although Russian television received them with joy, missile strikes
25836882-explosii-centrul-kievului.htm”>against the capital Kyiv and other large cities of Ukraine rather showed Vladimir Putin’s weaknesses.

And behind the anger shown by the Kremlin leader, and the admiration shown by several Russian officials after the strikes on Ukraine, there are actually several traps that Putin has set for himself.

A military trap for Putin

Nine days ago, Putin appointed General Serhiy Surovkin as the supreme commander of the forces invading Ukraine. Apparently known to his colleagues as “General Armageddon”, although this moniker conveniently appeared in Russian newspapers after his appointment, he is a competent and tough commander who led Russian attacks on Syrian cities.

But Surovkin does not have many options. The initiative is firmly on the side of the Ukrainians, and they will try to use the few weeks left before the arrival of winter to maximize their gains, most likely in the Kherson region in the south of the country, which is under Russian occupation. authorities have already called for evacuation.

Recruits mobilized after the decree on partial mobilization on September 21 began to arrive at the front, but they are often poorly trained or unmotivated. At best, they can help protect the Russian front, and not participate in the deployment of new offensive operations.

As military analyst Tyler Rogoway explained the other day, Russian missile attacks early last week did not hit any military targets and only used what was left of Moscow’s missile stockpile.

Rogovey also noted that these “retaliatory strikes” ordered by Putin accelerated the equipping of Ukraine with a modern integrated air defense system, which will create new problems for the Russian Air Force.

Regarding the missiles that remained in Moscow’s arsenal, Andrii Gurulyov, a former Russian general, now a deputy of the Moscow legislature, in an interview with the newspaper “Komsomolskaya Pravda” urged “not to waste them”.

(PHOTO: Natalia Kolesnikova / AFP / Profimedia)

A political trap for the Kremlin

Last Monday’s attacks also angered local Russian leaders whose regions are home to missile factories. They lobbied in Moscow for the exemption of skilled factory workers from mobilization, which, although declared “partial”, turned out to be indiscriminate, especially in poorer regions of Russia.

On October 5, Putin personally announced that he had signed a decree that “corrects” the mistakes after the chaotic way of carrying out the mobilization caused strong dissatisfaction and even protests in some regions of Russia.

But with last week’s attacks, Putin was not just trying to appease “hawks” in the administration and pro-war extremists on social media, who demanded revenge for the explosion on the Kerch bridge connecting Crimea with Russia.

The attacks were also a direct response to Ramzan Kadyrov and Yevgeny Prigozhin, two of Putin’s closest allies, who began openly criticizing the military command in Moscow and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

This illustrates the political trap in which Putin found himself. Before he could stand between extremist hawks and more moderate technocrats. Now he is forced to try to please one group, then another, without actually satisfying the grievances of any of them.

Ramzan Kadyrov at least said that he was “100%” satisfied with the development of the “special military operation” after the missile strikes on Ukrainian cities on Putin’s orders.

A social trap for Moscow

By ordering the mobilization and annexation of occupied Ukrainian territories, including territories not even controlled by his military, Putin violated not one but two social contracts associated with the invasion.

The regional leadership is now forced to recruit new “volunteer battalions” for the Kremlin’s war, although at the beginning of the invasion ordinary Russians were given broad guarantees that they would not be drafted into the war, and only professional soldiers would participate in “special forces”. military operation”.

Obviously, this is no longer the case. The mobilization decree means that every family in Russia, with the exception, of course, of the Kremlin-connected elites, has every reason to fear economic hardship, as people are increasingly aware of with each new mobilized man.

Putin also broke the tacit understanding with regional leaders and heads of key institutions. If they kept quiet about their “possessions” and feigned enthusiasm for the war, they would not be forced to abandon the pretense that they actually represented local interests and not Moscow’s.

These leaders now believe the Kremlin has reneged on its promise, exacerbated by cuts in funding to the Russian Treasury. Regional leaders are asked to cover the costs associated with mobilization, the formation of new battalions and compensation for families who lost men at the front.

Dmitry Medvedev with the Minister of Internal Affairs of Russia, head of the FSB and Denis Pushylin (PHOTO: Sputnik / Profimedia Images)

The danger of banditry in Russia

During his more than 20 years in power, Vladimir Putin has created a system based on dividing elites in order to rule them.

He encouraged the existence of “small churches” and the struggle for power, including within the Kremlin, placing himself in the position of supreme arbiter in these disputes, which often revolve around money, not just influence.

Now, when Russia is absorbed in the war in Ukraine, these conflicts are becoming more open.

A recent series of mysterious suicides among prominent businessmen and officials seems to demonstrate the “rediscovery” of assassination as a business tactic, a feature of the 1990s in Russia.

However, the regime created by Putin is not under immediate threat. Too much depends on it. Regional leaders and leaders of various factions vying for power are still vying for Putin’s attention.

But this happens even as they try to maximize their own resources despite the necessity of war. For example, according to the Moscow Investigative Committee, a kind of Russian FBI, at least a quarter of the funds needed for the recruitment process were stolen on the spot.

But the Committee says that they cannot disclose the exact amount, without directly specifying the reason: because regional officials cover each other’s tracks.

Caught between hawks demanding an escalation of the war and technocrats worried about the consequences for the Russian economy, Putin has less and less room for maneuver at home, as does his army at the front.

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