Brussels is putting pressure on President Aleksandar Vučić to encourage him to choose a clearer direction. Serbia, involved in the EU accession process, may be forced to apply sanctions against its Russian ally, reports Le Monde, citing Rador.

Is it time to choose waters in Serbia? This traditionally Russophile Balkan country, which has displayed a form of neutrality in the Ukrainian conflict while saying it wants to join the European Union, is under unprecedented pressure from Brussels to pick a side.

In its annual progress report on accession talks, published on Wednesday, October 12, the European Commission issued a scathing indictment of Belgrade’s foreign policy since the start of the war in Ukraine, lamenting that Serbia “continues to maintain intense relations” with Russia.

Despite the fact that candidate countries must align their foreign policies with those of the European Union, the Commission addresses a long list of claims to Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, who was triumphantly re-elected last April:

“Serbia did not directly condemn Russia’s aggression”; “Some statements and actions of Serbian officials directly contradicted the position of the EU”; “Serbia refused to impose sanctions against Russia”; “Russian officials who are on the EU sanctions lists were received in Belgrade”…

The seriousness of these complaints is the first since the start of accession negotiations with this country of seven million people, which is also making moderate progress in terms of the rest of the set criteria for joining the EU, whether it is the fight against corruption or principles related to the rule of law.

“Serbian leaders made the mistake of believing that Putin would quickly win the war in Ukraine,” emphasizes Srdjan Majstorovic, president of the Center for European Politics in Belgrade.

Having established with the help of scientific calculations that the coherence of Serbia’s foreign policy with EU policy has decreased “from 64% in 2021 to 45% in August 2022”, the Commission thus concludes that Serbia has “regressed” on the way to European membership.

Europeans are “using this qualifier for the first time,” laments Srdjan Majstorovic, a former member of Serbia’s EU accession negotiating team who now heads the Center for European Policy in Belgrade, a pro-European think tank.

“Serbian leaders failed in their bet that Putin would quickly win the war in Ukraine. Now, when it becomes increasingly clear that Russia will be drawn into this conflict, it should change its policy,” he hopes.

“Vucic bought time, but joining the sanctions has now become inevitable if he wants to respect his declared goal of becoming a member of the EU,” Ivan Vejvoda, a researcher at the Institute of Humanities in Vienna, also believes.

The opinion of the majority is pro-Russian

Serbia’s strongman since 2014, President Aleksandar Vucic also acknowledged for the first time on Saturday, October 8, that he may have to “adjust to a different reality” regarding sanctions “if the damage to Serbia becomes too great.”

A former minister of information under the dictator Slobodan Milosevic, Vucic is known for his ability to navigate the geopolitical interests of major powers while flattering public opinion.

The latter has remained predominantly pro-Russian since the wars in Yugoslavia, when Moscow supported the Serbian side. According to polls, the introduction of sanctions against Russia remains extremely unpopular.

“But President Vučić has the means to bring public opinion closer to him, since he controls 90% of the mass media,” adds Maistorowicz.

Although he has begun to prepare the population for the possible adoption of sanctions, the Serbian president continues to send messages in the opposite direction. In September, he signed a “consultation plan for 2023 and 2024” with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York.

On October 8, he announced construction of an oil pipeline to Hungary with his ally, nationalist leader Viktor Orbán, so he can continue importing Russian oil despite a European embargo due to take effect in December.

Heavily dependent on Russian hydrocarbons, Serbia has been told by neighboring Croatia that Zagreb will no longer allow fuel from Russia through a pipeline that runs through its territory to connect the Adriatic coast to the border with Serbia.

Orbán agreed with Brussels to postpone the embargo on Russian oil for his country until the end of 2024.

Pressure on the Kosovo file

Serbia may also have to change its position due to pressure on a related issue: Kosovo.

Belgrade still refuses to recognize the independence of its former province, which was declared in 2008, and maintains a policy of diplomatic blockade at all levels. In this aspiration, she is supported by Russia, which can use its right of veto in the UN Security Council.

However, France and Germany recently proposed a plan to resolve the frozen conflict, which Vucic said would allow Kosovo to join the UN without the need for formal recognition of independence by Belgrade. Instead, “Serbia would quickly gain membership in the EU,” says the Serbian president, who for now rules out such an agreement.

But, as some members of the Belgrade parliament admit, Serbia fears that it will no longer be able to use Moscow’s unconditional support in this case.

“The Russians are busy with their own problems,” Milovan Dretsun, head of the Serbian parliamentary committee on Kosovo, said recently. “Perhaps at some point we could reduce the pressure on Kosovo’s accession to the UN if we started to respect the EU’s sanctions policy against Russia.”