In Brazil, Lula’s bid to win a runoff against President Jair Bolsonaro requires courting the centrist electorate, strengthening his “emotional connection” with the working classes, analysts quoted by AFP said.

The former leftist president (2003-2010) led his opponent in the first round (48% to 43%), but the gap turned out to be much smaller than the polls predicted.

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 76, is counting down the days until Tuesday, when he has 26 days to convince voters to give him a third term.

“It’s not just that the government doesn’t talk to the people, it’s that we have to talk to the people,” he said after a meeting with his campaign team in Sao Paulo on Monday.

“Lulinha paz e amor (little Lula, peace and love) is ready to talk to everyone,” he added, referring to his nickname during his first presidential race in 2002, when he was trying to attract a centrist electorate.

In this year’s election, the Workers’ Party (PT) candidate has already tried to come close, naming former São Paulo governor Geraldo Alcmin, a center-right icon whom he defeated in the 2006 runoff, as his vice-presidential candidate.

But he will have to go further to convince as many people as possible for the decisive vote on October 30.

Seduction operation

“The number one priority for Lula is not to lose the votes” of those who voted for him in the first round, that is 57.2 million voters, Leandro Gabiati of consulting firm Dominium told AFP.

“Some voters, who are not necessarily on the left, voted for Lula, believing him to be the anti-Bolsonaro candidate, but ‘if Bolsonaro softens his speech, he may change their minds.’

Another priority is to attract as many voters as possible from the two main candidates who were eliminated in the first round, Simone Tebet (center-right, 4%) and Ciro Gómez (center-left, 3%).

Another desirable segment is those who abstained, about 21% of the electorate in the first round.

“He will have to make concessions” as Bolsonaro will also try to woo his voters.

On Tuesday, Ciro Gómez’s FDT party officially endorsed Lula with the consent of a candidate who had been a vocal critic of the former president during the campaign.

For political science professor Mayra Gular, the support of Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could allow Lula to “attract conservative voters” sensitive to social issues.

The 52-year-old senator announced her decision on the evening of the first round, but clarified that she would have to consult with her BMD party before making an official announcement. The centrist party is deeply divided and has a strong Bolsonista wing.

But the senator’s preference for the leftist candidate is no longer a secret.

She played an important role in the parliamentary commission of inquiry that indicted the Bolsonaro government over its handling of the Covid crisis. And the Brazilian mass media reported on negotiations regarding a possible ministerial position in Lula’s government.

Reinsurance of the business community

To gain support from more conservative sectors and appease the business community, Lula must present an economic program that includes more guarantees of fiscal austerity.

“It’s important to tempt the most fickle voters,” said Artur Ituasu, professor of political communication at the Catholic University of Rio (PUC).

Investors cheered Bolsonaro’s better-than-expected result on Monday, with Sao Paulo’s stock market up more than 5%.

Looking to the future

According to Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia, Lula should also focus more on “proposals for the future” rather than repeating “the successes of his first terms.”

For many voters, his recent past is also synonymous with corruption scandals. The overturning of his convictions on the grounds that they were invalid did not remove the suspicions.

According to Mayra Gular, Lula, Brazil’s first working-class president, must also maintain an “emotional connection with the working classes,” the core of his electorate.