Loans granted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to countries with economic problems reached a record level of $140 billion at the end of August, the Financial Times reported, citing news.ro.

International Monetary FundPhoto: Graeme Sloan / ddp USA / Profimedia

The international financial institution is grappling with simultaneous crises that have pushed at least five countries into bankruptcy, with others expected to find themselves in similar situations.

The Covid-19 pandemic, Russia’s attack on Ukraine and the sudden increase in global interest rates forced dozens of countries to turn to the IMF for help.

An analysis of IMF data by the Financial Times shows that at the end of August, the volume of loans provided by the fund amounted to $140 billion under 44 separate programs.

That figure, which is expected to rise further in the coming months as the cost of borrowing rises, already exceeds the value of outstanding loans at the end of 2020 and 2021, when they were at record highs for the year.

Experts predict that further large interest rate hikes by central banks in major markets will raise the cost of borrowing around the world and risk triggering a major recession.

According to some analysts, the credit capacity of the IMF may soon reach its limit, as poor countries that are deprived of access to the international debt market are forced to turn to the fund for support.

The IMF’s total liabilities, including agreed but not yet disbursed loans, are already more than $268 billion.

Kevin Gallagher of Boston University’s Center for Global Development Policy warned that “only so many countries” could receive IMF support without “disrupting the IMF’s balance sheet.”

This week, Gallagher co-authored a report that warned the world’s 55 poorest countries would have to pay off $436 billion in debt between 2022 and 2028, with about $61 billion due this year and in 2023 and nearly $70 billion dollars in 2024.

The fund downplayed fears.

His total liabilities are “another share [aproape] $1 billion that could be made available,” said Bikas Joshi, director of the IMF’s strategy, policy and analysis department.

“The cost of loans is rising in proportion to the greater risks faced by the countries that turn to us for support,” he said.

The IMF is negotiating with several countries for support packages that will further increase its overall commitments.

Zambia and Sri Lanka, which defaulted during the Covid-19 pandemic, along with Lebanon, Russia and Suriname, are in talks with the IMF for aid as part of efforts to restructure their debts.

Ghana, Egypt and Tunisia are in early talks for similar support.

In late August, the IMF approved $1.1 billion in aid to Pakistan; Argentina is set to receive $3.9 billion over the next few weeks as part of its $41 billion program.

Under IMF rules, member countries can typically receive support of up to 145% of their quota or IMF capital, which roughly corresponds to each country’s share of the world economy.

This would leave $370 billion available to low- and middle-income countries out of the IMF’s total lending capacity of $940 billion.

But this limit is often exceeded. Argentina’s support package, approved in March as debt restructuring under a record $50 billion aid program agreed with the IMF in 2018, is more than 10 times its quota.

Goldman Sachs analysts expect Egypt to receive a $15 billion financial package soon, nearly six times its stake.

The IMF is increasing its lending capacity to a limited extent. Traditionally, it lends through two main instruments: the so-called General Resources Account and the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust, which lends at lower interest rates to low-income countries.

The fund recently launched a Resilience and Resilience Trust, designed to help countries address systemic challenges such as climate change, which Joshi said has secured $40 billion in financial commitments out of a $45 billion target.

The IMF’s board of directors is likely to approve a new food shock program to help countries hit by rising food prices ahead of its annual meeting next month.