The Russian military appears to have lost the initiative at all levels in Ukraine, and Kyiv’s armed forces can now force them to retreat tactically on all fronts, explains Australian General Mick Ryan.

In a series of posts on his Twitter page, the retired general notes that the Ukrainian offensive in the northeast of the country, which led to the collapse of the Russian front in Kharkiv, continues to exploit the inconsistent and blundering defense of the Russian army. .

“Thousands of square kilometers of Ukrainian territory were recaptured, numerous cities and their residents were liberated,” he reminds, adding that even the Russian line of defense on the Oskil River, which runs through the eastern part of Kharkiv Oblast, seems to be collapsing. .

In fact, the Ukrainian armed forces released a video on Sunday showing them crossing the river and saying they had set up a bridgehead on the other side of the river.

Gen. Mick Ryan, a graduate of the U.S. Marine Corps Command and Staff College, says deception and operational planning have been crucial for Kyiv’s armed forces to catch the Russian military off guard in this new phase of the war.

“The fact that they were able to take advantage of this opportunity shows that Ukraine had a great plan to confuse both regular Russian forces and their tactical intelligence and surveillance units,” he emphasizes.

Russian troops demonstrated a “historic level of incompetence”

Ryan also states that, as a Ukrainian interlocutor recently confirmed to him during a visit to Kyiv, Russian intelligence and reconnaissance activities in eastern Ukraine have been weak, consisting mostly of “promotion to contact” infantry and armored forces, rather than the use of specialized aviation units. and intelligence.

One possible explanation for this situation is that Western sanctions have seriously affected the ability of Russia’s military industry to produce drones and other advanced equipment needed for such operations.

“This means that the situation is being prepared for a surprise at the tactical and even operational level, which the Ukrainians clearly realized during the planning of the offensive on Kharkiv,” says the Australian officer.

He also notes that if the military command in Moscow was focused on protecting the successful conquests in the south of Ukraine, the military leadership in Kyiv, through brilliant operational planning, managed to launch a counteroffensive on both the Kherson region and the Kharkiv region from the northeast of the country. .

“Offensives in the north and south support each other through greater operational planning. Operational planning is an important component of military professionalism. Military commanders and their subordinates can, thanks to good operational planning, organize the achievement of tactical objectives and take the actions necessary to achieve strategic and political objectives, – emphasizes Ryan.

The general also notes that, ironically, it was the Russians at the beginning of the 20th century who were among the first advocates of the importance of such operational planning for the armed forces.

“This is not visible in the current performance of the Russian armed forces, which have demonstrated a historic level of incompetence and stupidity,” he added.

To his left, Sergey Shoigu and the Chief of the General Staff of Russia, General Valery Gerasimov (PHOTO: Vadym Savitsky / TASS / Profimedia Images)

There is a lot of freedom for Ukrainians as to where the next attack will take place

What does all this mean for the coming days or weeks?

First, the simultaneous Ukrainian offensives completely compromised Russian operations in Donbas. They compromised the supply lines of the Russian armed forces and created an even greater psychological problem for Russian soldiers and servicemen fighting in eastern Ukraine.

Second, it will be difficult for the Russians to continue hostilities in the east without responding to the threats that Ukrainian forces now pose to the areas behind the front line, where the Russian military logistics base is organized. This problem will worsen for the Russian forces if the Ukrainians continue to advance on the other side of the Oskil River.

In order to respond to these threats, the Russians will have to reorient their forces to the east of Ukraine, one of the possible options being the transfer of units located in the Kherson region.

“This effectively destroys any possibility for the Russians to carry out offensive actions in both the east and the south of Ukraine,” General Ryan explains, adding that the situation also creates other opportunities for the military command in Kyiv.

Due to the fact that the Russians can strengthen one section of their front only by transferring troops from another front, it is possible that in the near future we will see a series of cascading tactical withdrawals of Russian troops on several fronts.

This, along with the accompanying losses of equipment and personnel, jeopardizes Russia’s ability to dictate the pace and location of new hostilities. This means that, essentially, Ukraine’s next big attack could happen almost anywhere.

Russian tanks were destroyed in Ukraine (PHOTO: Yefrem Lukatsky / AP – The Associated Press / Profimedia)

A period of “shock” for Russian troops

“The Ukrainians led this war,” says Mick Ryan, explaining that the Ukrainians managed to shock the Russian troops as well as their commanders.

“This period of shock is generally a productive period for those who go on the offensive. During this period of upheaval, Ukraine can seize the largest territory and destroy the largest number of enemy troops. And that’s exactly what I’m doing,” says the Australian general.

“While all offensives eventually slow down as attacking troops tire and overwhelm their supply lines, there is probably some energy left in the Ukrainian offensive,” says Mick Ryan, adding that “the Ukrainians seem to sense the potential for a greater collapse of the Russians to the east.” .

The Australian general notes that the achievements of Ukrainian forces in the past month are not only a stunning military victory, but also an answer to questions that some have previously raised about their ability to carry out large-scale offensive actions.

“We will be studying this campaign for decades. But now we must ensure that the West continues to provide equipment and ammunition for this and future campaigns,” General Mick Ryan concludes.

Follow the latest events of the 208th day of the war in Ukraine LIVETEXT on HOTNEWS.RO.