The rapid advance of Ukrainian forces over the past week has a number of consequences that go beyond the conflict in which they originated. At stake is the future of Russian President Vladimir Putin and, accordingly, of Russia itself, the American magazine Newsweek wrote in an editorial on Wednesday, citing Rador.

While it is too early to predict how things will develop, given the many news stories that have emerged this week, it is clear that the Ukrainian military has the upper hand in terms of command tactics and morale compared to the Russian military. Given their constant supply from the West – especially from the USA – Ukrainians can expel Russians from their country.

There is absolutely no chance of a negotiated settlement. The atrocities committed by the Russians in the months following the occupation – including the destruction of schools, homes and towns – make a negotiated settlement with Ukraine impossible. Just as the Allies could not accept anything from Germany and Japan except unconditional surrender, the Ukrainians cannot accept anything from the Russians except unconditional withdrawal of any claims to Ukraine.

If Russia is defeated, what will Putin’s future look like? We know of no group in Russia that could legally remove him from power. Putin took care of it. But when it becomes clear to Russians that Putin has lost the war, and with it wealth, prestige and so many lives, it will be impossible for Putin to stay in power.

Given that no body has the legal authority to impeach Putin, other legal avenues will be needed for the Russians to intervene. Sufficiently large-scale and mass protests can make Putin’s stay in power impossible. This has happened before.

In 1989, Mikhail Gorbachev put the Soviet Parliament before real elections. Boris Yeltsin, the former popular mayor of Moscow, was elected by the Moscow electoral district. The following year, despite opposition from Gorbachev and the Communist Party, Yeltsin nominated and was elected President of Russia. From this position, he increased his executive power and provoked the collapse of the Soviet Union. In 1991, radical members of the Communist Party organized an uprising against Gorbachev aimed at restoring the old Soviet Union. They were stopped by popular protests in the country’s major cities, and on December 31, 1991, the Communist Party’s control over Russia finally ended.

Shortly before December 31, 1999, Yeltsin unexpectedly resigned as president and appointed Vladimir Putin as acting president. Later, in March 2000, Putin won the election. Since then, Putin has consolidated his power and eliminated many factions in the Russian government that could have hindered his rise. It begs the question: how much could a weakened Putin be removed from power when there are now several levers of governance that would have the power to defeat him?

Unfortunately, the most likely path is a chaotic one, similar to that of 1989, but there is at least one man – Alexei Navalny – who is likely to have enough support in Russia to become a central figure in any attempt to oust Putin.

Navalny, who survived a 2021 poisoning attempt – almost certainly by Putin’s men – is now in prison somewhere in Russia. He was praised for returning from Germany to Russia after treatment, but Putin promptly jailed him on trumped-up charges. During his latest appeal to Moscow against his nine-year prison sentence, Navalny accused Putin of corruption and said the war in Ukraine “is based on some kind of lie.” The defeat in Ukraine will be considered as proof of this accusation.

If the war in Ukraine ends badly for Russia, as recent events suggest, and if Ukrainians, as expected, continue to support the West and refuse to negotiate with Putin, mass protests are expected in major Russian cities and, ultimately, the result could be a change in the Russian government .

[Articol de Peter J. Wallison / Newsweek]