The population of Germany is growing rapidly. According to an August study by Deutsche Bank, Germany could have almost 86 million inhabitants in 2030. The country is facing a record influx of immigration, the largest since 1990. Is it a problem or an asset?

According to the current German monitoring by Deutsche Bank Research, the number of inhabitants will increase to almost 86 million in 2030, five million more than in 2011. And this is primarily due to immigration, which brings with it consequences, for example, in the field of labor and the housing market.

About 329,200 people arrived in Germany in 2021, about the same as before the pandemic, mainly due to the movement of refugees from Syria and Afghanistan in the second half of the year.

This year, Deutsche Bank Research expects 1.3 million refugees from Ukraine alone due to the Russian war of aggression. In 2023, analysts expect another 260,000 Ukrainians.

Chances and risks

According to the forecast, the number of German residents will grow from 83.3 million in 2021 to 84.9 million and 85.4 million in 2022 and 2023. “This will mean that the wave of refugees will be significantly higher than in 2015,” the study said. It is likely to be surpassed only by post-World War II immigration.

The consequences of this immigration vary between chance and risk. Economists at Deutsche Bank Research mostly expect the housing shortage to worsen for now. There are two million vacant apartments in Germany, but usually outside the metropolitan areas where refugees prefer to go.

In addition, national CO2 emission targets are more difficult to achieve. Global CO2 emissions and global resource consumption tended to rise, especially as people immigrated from countries with much lower standards of living.

However, analysts note an increase in consumption and, therefore, a positive impulse for the economy. But first of all: “The shortage of specialists and skilled workers will be mitigated, as well as the negative consequences of the aging of society will be mitigated.” Economists are sure: “In the long term, the positive should significantly outweigh the negative. “

You are welcome and needed

According to a study by the German Economic Institute (IW), there is a shortage of more than half a million skilled workers in Germany. Staffing shortages in social care, education, care, trade and information technology are particularly high, as the IW revealed last week.

But what if the Ukrainians who fled to Germany return immediately after the end of the war and will not be on the German labor market at all or for a short time? “There are good reasons why refugees from Ukraine stay in Germany,” explains study author Jochen Mebert. “They are welcome in Germany and needed, the key word being the lack of skilled workers.”

Frank Sviachny, a demographer of the Federal Institute for Population Research (BiB), considers the assumptions of Deutsche Bank Research to be fundamentally plausible, as he explains in an interview with Focus-online. However, he notes that the medium-term forecast of immigration from Ukraine is somewhat uncertain.

“The people who fled to us from Ukraine are relatively well educated, many want to stay in Germany,” says Sviachny. Therefore, it is likely that they can integrate well. Immigration, especially from Ukraine, may increase in the next few years.

At the moment, mainly single women and children have fled to the West because of the war. “If stabilization comes and many people stay in Germany forever, families will most likely be reunited,” Svyachny adds.

Seven decades of integration policy

There are medium and long-term advantages for society as a whole in the immigration of young people with good training and prospects, at least from a purely economic point of view. However, when it comes to integration, it is important to have a concrete plan. The plan that Germany had for a long time, it always improved, but it did not work perfectly.

Therefore, we need real proposals, such as kindergartens, schools, language courses, training and generally support for integration. This should be done systematically. “Just waiting and hoping doesn’t work.” Svyachny indicates. This is evidenced by the experience of 70 years of immigration policy in Germany.

Meanwhile, it became clear that immigration in Germany is unevenly distributed. International migration is primarily directed to megacities, as there are networks and more jobs.

Therefore, a national perspective is one thing, a regional perspective is often quite another, and immigration contributes to increasing spatial disparities in demographic change.

But one thing is clear: according to the forecasts of Destatis (Federal Statistical Office), without immigration the population will decrease to 65.2 million in 2060, and with moderate immigration to 78.2 million. The so-called excess mortality in the Federal Republic is now about 200,000 per year.

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