Russia’s military command is likely to lose confidence in Crimea’s security after recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian military facilities in Crimea, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) says in its latest assessment of the invasion ordered by Vladimir Putin.

Russian sources reported on Wednesday that Vice Admiral Viktor Sokolov has replaced Admiral Igor Osipov as commander of the Black Sea Fleet in Crimea.

Russia wants to change the narrative, qualifying the strikes as “terrorist acts”

However, Russian intelligence apparently wanted to keep Sokolov’s appointment top secret because of the alleged threat of “terrorist danger” in Sevastopol.

Recent Ukrainian strikes (linked to guerrillas and the armed forces of Kyiv) on Russian military assets in Crimea, including the naval headquarters in Sevastopol, likely put the occupying forces on high alert and led to a restructuring of forces, logistics and leadership of the Russian group in Crimea to mitigate the consequences of new strikes.

The Main Directorate of Military Intelligence of Ukraine, for example, reported that Russian forces are redeploying dozens of planes and helicopters from Crimea to the regions of the peninsula and the Russian mainland.

The Russian leadership and the Russian nationalist media space are increasingly trying to present the recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian military positions in Crimea as acts of terrorism in order to divert the narrative from Russia’s violations of international law and calls for the West to appoint Russia. as a state sponsor of terrorism.

Russian sources inaccurately qualified the attacks on the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet, the ammunition depot and the Saka airbase as acts of terrorism.

Moscow wants to undermine Ukraine’s demands to recognize Russia as a terrorist state

The Russian-appointed leader of occupied Crimea, Serhii Askenov, said on Wednesday that Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) in Crimea had neutralized cells of Hizb ut-Tahrir (a fundamentalist Islamist political organization that has long been active in Central Asia and among the outlawed Crimean Tatar community in Russia.

Aksyonov accused the Ukrainian authorities of coordinating Hizb ut-Tahrir operations in Crimea, without providing any evidence.

Russian officials are likely to increasingly link attacks by Ukrainian guerrillas on occupied territories to the operations of organizations linked to Islamist extremism in an effort to distance the Ukrainian guerrilla movement from the international community and undermine calls for Ukraine to formally recognize Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism.

Attacks on legitimate Russian military targets fall squarely within the scope of the legitimate use of force and are not acts of terrorism, and there is no evidence that these attacks were led by Islamist extremists.

ISW Key Findings:

The Russian military leadership is falsely claiming that the recent attacks on Russian military facilities in Crimea are terrorist attacks in order to deflect calls to recognize Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism.

Moscow troops carried out several unsuccessful attacks near the border between Kharkiv and Donetsk region, in tactically difficult forest areas. Russian forces continued unsuccessful attacks on settlements southeast of Siversk and launched several attacks northeast and south of Bakhmut and are likely trying to improve tactical positions near Horlivka.

Russian forces have made limited gains northwest of the city of Donetsk and near the administrative border between Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk Oblasts.

Probably, the invading army is preparing to protect its land communications in the Melitopol-Tokmak-Berdyansk triangle by mining front-line settlements in the eastern Zaporizhzhya region.

Russian regions continue to form new volunteer units and conduct recruitment, but face difficulties in finding those willing to fight. Against the background of increased partisan activity, the Russian occupation authorities are working to strengthen control measures in the occupied territories.

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