Carbon reduction scenarios proposed by several oil and gas giants are “incompatible” with the goals of the Paris Agreement to avoid devastating global warming, according to a study presented on Tuesday, cited by AFP.

The study, published in the journal Nature Communications, is an analysis by an international panel of experts of six emissions scenarios from three European energy giants – Equinor, BP and Shell – and scenarios developed by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The experts then compared these different trajectories with scenarios described in a special report by the UN Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which aims to limit average global warming to 1.5°C.

Analyzing all these scenarios, the team estimated the maximum temperature and end-of-century temperature in each case.

They also looked at the fundamental changes in the energy sector, which is the main source of greenhouse gas emissions and which could make it possible to achieve or not, in one scenario or another, the goals set by the Paris Agreement.

In a landmark 2015 agreement, countries committed to limiting global warming to “well below” +2°C above pre-industrial levels, or even to +1.5°C if possible.

“Most of the scenarios we considered are inconsistent with the Paris Agreement because they do not limit warming to +much less than 2°C+ and would significantly exceed the 1.5°C limit,” said Robert Brescia, Climate Analytics, co-author of the study .

“The transformation of the energy sector is essential” to achieving the goals, “and policymakers need sound and transparent scientific assessments” such as this study, he stressed.

Their analysis concluded that Shell’s scenario, called Sky, would lead to 1.81°C warming by 2069.

A Shell spokeswoman told AFP that the Sky scenario was just one of several possibilities, adding that their teams were making “estimates based on plausible assumptions and quantifications that are not intended to predict possible future events or outcomes.”

Under the Rebalance Equinor scenario, warming will peak at 1.73°C above pre-industrial levels by 2060, according to the study.

According to the analysis, the BP fast scenario would lead to a maximum warming of 1.73°C by 2058, while the Net Zero scenario would lead to an average warming of no more than +1.65°C.