We wish you pleasant holidays and low inflation, said the head of the National Bank of Romania, Mugur Iserescu, at the end of the conference on Tuesday after the presentation of the inflation report.

According to the BNR, the inflation peak occurs in the third quarter, and it goes down from the fourth quarter:

• subject to a gradual reduction in tension on the wholesale energy and food markets…

• … as well as the gradual dispersal of unconsciousness in global value chains…

• … but also as a result of some main effects, after the strong increase in energy prices in 2021, before the implementation of support schemes for domestic consumers

The BNR sees a temporary end to the deflationary trend in the second quarter of 2023 with the expiration of measures to limit the prices of electricity and natural gas.

On the forecast horizon of June 2024, the forecasted level is 2.3% against the background of the manifestation of a significant base effect.

The new forecast of the National Bank predicts inflation of 15.1% at the end of the third quarter of the current year and 13.9% at the end of the year.

The estimate for the first quarter of 2023 is 11.6%, for the second – 13.8%, for the third – 8.9%, for the end of 2023 – 7.5%.

The head of the National Bank of Romania said on Tuesday that inflation is a global phenomenon, it is present not only in Romania.

“The lowest inflation in Europe exceeds 5%. Romania has the seventh highest inflation rate. In Romania, inflation was driven by energy, utilities, and food,” he said.