It seems that during a pandemic it is difficult to make predictions. And researchers at the Bonn Institute for Vocational Training (BIBB) and the Institute for Labor Market and Career Research (IAB) in Nuremberg are not committed to predicting its long-term impact on company strategy and employer behavior. In the short term, they allocate two years for economic recovery after lockdowns. But even with all the negative consequences of the crisis, they consider other decisive factors for the German labor market: the demographic situation and economic structural changes. How will this affect personnel policy? Let’s take a look at your forecast report.

More seniors, more doctors

Researchers from Bonn and Nuremberg did model calculations for the next 20 years. In their prediction, they took into account several already obvious trends. The first is demographic. In total, the number of inhabitants will increase slightly until 2040 and will reach about 83.7 million. At the same time, the life expectancy of the population in Germany is increasing and, consequently, the working age population will decrease by 5.2 million people.

With demographic changes, health issues will become increasingly important, and medical and nursing staff will be the most employed. Population aging will lead to the fact that the majority of workers in 2040 will be employed in health and social care.

Industry – in red, services – in black

In their calculations, the researchers took into account planned changes in the economy and policy: the measures envisaged by the conjunctural economic recovery package, as well as the climate package adopted by the German government in 2020. Consumer behavior was also taken into account, which led to the growth of online commerce and an increase in the number of approvals for the operation of electric vehicles.

Another emerging trend will also be important for the job market. In recent years, in the structure of employment in Germany, there has been a gradual shift from industry to the service sector. This trend will intensify in the future. On the other hand, the manufacturing industry will have to cut personnel by almost a million and a half. The reduction in export dynamics will also have an effect, as will the need to adapt to the new realities of the automotive industry.

The boom observed in civil construction, according to the researchers’ forecasts, will diminish in the long term. Again, it’s demographics to blame: new homes and apartments will no longer be needed in such large numbers. As a result, the demand for construction specialty representatives will also decrease. A slight reduction will be observed in the production of goods. There will be fewer employees in the retail trade (as opposed to online trade) as well as in the car service field.

German personnel policy and geography

In different federal states of Germany, the situation of shortage or surplus of labor will develop in different ways. Of interest are data on areas where employment is currently the highest by region. In the north, this is agriculture and forestry as well as fishing. In the south, in Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg, many work in the manufacturing industry. In the eastern part of Germany – in the construction industry, social security and administration. In Berlin, as in Hamburg, a large proportion of the workforce is in the business services sector. In the German capital, more specialists than the national average are employed in entertainment, recreation and education, as well as in creative professions.

Taking into account regional specificities, the authors of the report are committed to predicting that the reduction of the industry will affect the reduction of the number of jobs mainly in the east (with the exception of Berlin) and in the south of the country. In North Rhine-Westphalia and Saarland, fewer employees will be needed in the metallurgical industry. Structural changes will not affect Berlin and Hamburg – here the number of employees will only increase.

Demand for field experts

One area will clearly benefit from structural changes. By the way, Germany’s move towards digitization has revealed a shortage of specialists in the field of information technology. The demand for personnel in the field of IT services will only increase.

The future of IT professionals in Germany is more than secure

The time to find a suitable candidate for a job through 2040 will increase by four days: employers, on average, will need up to 73 days. The most difficult jobs to fill will be in fields such as mechatronics, energy and electrical engineering, information and communication technology, medicine, wellness, body care and medical technology, across Germany. Last year, the search for personnel in these areas took longer. Today, doctors are mainly sought after in eastern Germany, in Bavaria, North Rhine-Westphalia and Rhineland-Palatinate. Specialists in mechatronics and electronics in Bavaria and the eastern states. IT specialists – in Berlin, Hamburg and Saxony.