The scope of N.D.’s victory it was unexpected. However, her interpretation does not. N.D. she won because, unlike her opponents, she correctly captured the climate of the time and expressed the desire of the majority to leave the crisis period and what it alluded to behind. politically and stylistically. With a targeted campaign, he capitalized on any successes. The reduction of unemployment, investments, digitalization of the state, the military-diplomatic strengthening of the country, the solution of the issue of unpaid pensions, targeted social support campaigns, the development of tourism – these are the areas that, to a greater or lesser extent, supported the government’s narrative that the country had joined the ranks. While electorally decisive was that she expressed – only she – a demand for political stability.

41.79% N.D. goes beyond its traditional electoral base. Exit poll data shows that 1 in 5 of her voters did not vote for her in 2019. Its new influxes have come from across the political spectrum, more than making up for any loss of its own voters, with a more impressive 14% of PASOK’s voters. and 11% of SYRIZA voters in 2019 (approximately 3% of the electorate) who voted for ND in this election.

Who are these voters? These are mostly from three groups: freelancers who made a living during the pandemic and also saw tax and insurance premium cuts. Recipients of various benefits, hence the large increase in the most popular areas of Attica. Retirees who saw that the problem of unpaid pensions is solved, but also increases over the years.

This development of events is due to and at the same time justifies the political strategy of “triangulation” (s.s.: the term of the electoral strategy of the 10s of the 90s), which Mr. Mitsotakis consistently follows, formulating a personal political agenda with elements that also addressed to the right and left of the political spectrum. Tax cuts, but also benefits. Investment, but also an increase in pensions. equipment, but also promoting the needs of the LGBTI community. Institutional performances of high prestige, as well as presence in “light” shows and the use of TikTok. This is how Mr. Mitsotakis was sometimes able to communicate with a wider audience, giving them a reason to stay in his sphere of influence, even if they were not completely satisfied with him. In fact, at a time when his opponents were consistently appealing to an increasingly fanatical but constantly introverted electorate.

Is a specific percentage a ceiling for ND? No, it is not, despite the fact that potential “reservoirs” of N.D. they are small now. However, its preservation is also not a given.

It has been observed that immediately after the election, the percentage and quality of the winner data improve (winner effect), an element that is undoubtedly encouraging for the ND.

Now there are no barbarians. The danger of a “government of losers” no longer exists.

In addition, the social groups that form the basis of N.D. (elderly people, “housewives”, etc.) are constant in time in their turnout. While favorable for ND it is also that with the summer approaching, the last thing people want is government instability.

However, somewhere here begin “but”. Confidence in victory and the likely self-confidence of the ND may lead to complacency among some of its voters.

Also now there are no “barbarians”. The danger of a “government of losers” (as Alexis Tsipras himself hastened to dub it for unknown reasons) no longer exists. A fact that may lead to the demobilization of some voters who with a heavy heart voted for the ND out of fear of SYRIZA.

In difficulties N.D. it is also added that there will be no cross-preference in the forthcoming elections, with all that it entails, for the mobilization of personal electoral mechanisms. Although, finally, it cannot be ruled out that some “family” voters of N.D. choose your old party to strengthen it in the competition that is already developing in the opposition arena.

Employees N.D. he will seek to manage all of these opportunities in order to avoid complacency and maintain his percentage of voters.

But apart from any tactical moves, it is important for the ND to make a bold discovery to the public that did not vote for it to maintain its pre-election momentum. Present your goals for the next 4 years as the goals of the whole country, thereby strengthening your identification and proximity to the most vacillating voters. When Mr. Mitsotakis moved along this logic (the crisis in the Euros, the first phase of the pandemic, etc.), he accumulated political capital. Political conditions allow him to do so now. Fanatical opponents of N.D. they won’t be convinced. But there are still citizens who want to be on the side of the winners and feel that the efforts being made concern them. They can become a critical constituency that will strengthen and possibly increase the ND’s electoral influence.

Mr. Eftichis Vardoulakis is a strategy and communications consultant.