Parliament with the composition that will result upcoming elections with her system improved analogue it will have a different “face” compared to the “one day” that simple proportional polls showed last Sunday.

Keeping the same percentages h N.D. increases its membership to 25 seats at the expense of opposition parties and, in combination with other parameters, creates – through the list – candidates of two speeds: those who legitimately hope, even if they were not elected on May 21, and those who worry that they might stay away.

The Myth of First Party Benefits

Panos Stathopoulos*

in the June elections new electoral law the so-called “variable bonus”, which is known to relatively reward the first party. Calculating her distribution of seats by constituency according to the new law, in the results of May 21 and compared with what the proportional application gave, we find first of all a total transfer of 25 seats in favor of the first party.

These seats are awarded to all parties that win seats (percentage of 3% or more) in proportion to their electoral weight. OUR SYRIZA provides 11 seats, PASOK – KINAL 7, KKE 4 and n Greek solution 3. Noting that the first party has an electoral percentage of more than 40%, under the provisions of the new law, it receives a bonus of 50 seats, in the sense that the remaining 250 seats are distributed proportionally.

Thus, we have the first conclusion that should be paid attention to, since it clearly refutes the rather common myth that the first party is “given” 50 seats. In practice, the benefit of the first party is only 25 places. The 50-seat bonus is purely technical – nominal, since the first party is in any case entitled to a significant portion of the 50-seat bonus, depending on its electoral share.

This 25 seat change affects a total of 20 (out of 59) districts and occurs in the cases mentioned in the graph. However, it should be noted that the specific framework concerns a five-party parliament and, in any case, an extremely large percentage of non-representation (16%), which plays a role in the distribution of seats, in addition to the electoral percentage of the former (no other factor affects, as could be, for example, electoral difference of the first of the remaining parties).

Thus, assuming that more than five parties will enter the next Parliament, or that the percentage of non-represented people decreases overall, then in practice the first party will be entitled to fewer seats than those that are represented, and it is clear that these losses will be mainly way into the largest constituencies by population. Given that the electoral law distributes seats after the first distribution by the number of votes (and not by percentage).

* Mr. Panos Stathopoulos is Special Election Analyst.

Persons insignificantly inside or outside Parliament

George Burdaras

Maybe next election campaign not be characterized by a “battle on the cross”, as it will be carried out by a list, however, too large candidates all parties, especially those who, according to crucifixion last Sunday, who found themselves marginalized inside or outside parliament, have more incentives to actively participate in the new election campaign.

Among them are names with special political weight, such as the four “Yannides”, Mr. Tragakis, Oikonomou, Ragusis, Dragasakis, while there are too many who aspire to become members of the national delegation for the first time. With today’s data, as well as a number of open scenarios, the composition of the national delegation that will be formed by reinforced vote will certainly be very different from what we see on Sunday afternoon in the short term. – there was a new parliament of “simple proportionality”: according to the basic scenario described in the graph and in the text of Panos Stathopoulos, up to fifty people will change, while 25 “blue” people who came will receive the same number of seats from the opposition.

With the same percentage

The composition of the national delegation is expected to change with the introduction of the new electoral law – Who Worries, Who Hopes.

In a scenario in which the parties receive the same interest as last Sunday, one of the most notable cases would be the case of Mr. Tragaki, who, with his first election in 1974, will become the most senior of all in parliament, as he will take one of the two seats that will “pass” to the N.D. in the 2nd district of Piraeus. With him, as with the “firstborn”, there will be a lady. Evgenia Barbayannis. Their entry, however, will probably mean the loss of a place for Mr. ragushi (SYRIZA) and dec. Diamantides (PASOK).

Two high-profile upheavals are taking place in the same labor case in the B2 regions of the western sector of Attica, where the “blue” dec. Kalogeropoulos takes Mr out of Parliament Dragasakiand in Fthiotida with the former representative of the government G. Housekeeper to take one of the two seats that the ND will receive by returning to the parliamentary seats.

The way back to Parliament is shown by this “redistribution” of seats and by one of the quiet voices of the previous period, the voice of the Blues. S. Khionidisdepriving SYRIZA of space and Ath Guna – who would then be sworn in on Sunday as an MP for one day only.

A bitter taste similar to that of Mr. Guna can be obtained by former SYRIZA MPs such as Sultana Eleftheriadou (Cavalas) N. Sirmalenios (Cyclades), Io Amanatidis And Theodora Avgeri (A and B Thessaloniki, respectively), since their headquarters will be in the SW, pleasing in turn: Angeliki Delicari, M. Cafuro, P. Kokkori and Aikaterini Ziuta.

In another case, Chania, the KKE leaves the place, and Al. Marinaki, go to S.Z. and to Al. Markoyannakis. In such changes, a few “gay” people like M. Papadopoulos, At. Lutas, Laz. Tsavdaridis, Asimina Skondra, Irini Karalariotou, Sp. Pneumatikos, Milt. Chrysomallis, Maria Alexandra Kefala, Angelos Cygris and Efstatia Giannia.

In the base case, 20 counties are in red as candidates for the domino. However, there are many scenarios, since no one can disregard either the percentages that parties will receive with increased proportionality, or how many parties will be in the new parliament.

Indicative: A) N.D. to get a higher or lower percentage. b) PASOK serves as the second party. V) The small parties Niki and Pleussi Eleftherias, who barely made it through the first time, must overcome the 3% barrier and thus create a seven-party parliament. Thus, in such an unexplored field, “red” constituencies are clearly multiplying, becoming “hot” for even more candidates.